Barclays: We Expect to see Further Downside to Prices in the Next Few Months

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Thursday January 29, 2015

Barclays plc (Barclays) [XNYS:BCS;LSE:BARC] Wednesday said it expected to see oil prices fall further during the coming months, as it cut 2015 forecasts for crude prices, Reuters reports.

The British bank slashed its 2015 prediction for Brent Crude from $72 per barrel to $44 per barrel, and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from $66 per barrel to $44 per barrel.

"We expect to see further downside to prices in the next few months, with both WTI and Brent likely to trade into the high $30s before the oil price decline is arrested," wrote a Barclays analyst in a note to clients.

Barclays is said to be the most pessimistic amongst top tier investment banks Goldmans, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Merrills, in terms of its official forecasts.

Goldmans is understood to have said separately that after a weak first half, oil prices should recover in 2015 to finish around $65 per barrel for WTI and $70 per barrel for Brent.

"This suggests a strong recovery from current prices, but the timing is uncertain and we would wait for signs of stabilization (less inventory build and better roll yields) before shifting to a more positive stance on commodities," read a Goldman's note.

In addition, on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that U.S. oil supplies continued to rise by 8.9 million barrels in the week to January 23, according to The Wall Street Journal.

It is understood that the announcement marks the biggest two-week accumulation of oil stockpiles to a high of at least 80 years, bringing the total to around 407 million barrels.

While the increase is lower than predicted by the American Petroleum Institute, oil prices ultimately continued to fall as trader confidence in a near term resurgence in oil prices is said to remain low.

"There's nothing positive," said Jefferies's Andy Lebow.

On Monday, Goldmans President Gary Cohn said oil could hit $30 per barrel before tracking back up.