Despite Willingness To Consider Freeze, OPEC Output is Rising

Iran and Iraq lead the charge in a total OPEC March output of $32.47 million bpd.

While there's no major change in oil production output from Saudi Arabia, a Reuters survey has found that higher supply from Iran and near-record exports from Iraq have caused the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) supply to rise to 32.47 million barrels per day (bpd) in March compared to 32.37 million bpd in February.

Iran overall has posted the biggest rise, by 230,000 bpd since December, according to the survey – although Iranian officials claim the supply is much higher.

Iraq's output rise was reportedly due to an increase in southern exports, which compensated for disruption to flows along a pipeline from the Kurdish region.

By contrast, Saudi had stable to slightly lower exports in March: 10.18 million bpd compared to 10.20 million last month, which Reuters theorizes is a sign Riyadh is serious about freezing output in accordance with the proposal put forth by other OPEC member/non member producers.

Meanwhile, outages and maintenance instead of voluntary restraint is being attributed to output declines in the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, and Libya.

Reuters states, "OPEC production has surged since the group in November 2014 abandoned its historic role of cutting supply alone to prop up prices," and it adds that "The extra OPEC crude added to a global glut."

As for possible consequences of the OPEC member/non member April 17 meeting to discuss curbing production in order to rebalance the market, Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, says "We see a risk of a short-term setback if the meeting produces a disappointment."

Many other critics believe a disappointment is inevitable, given the conflicting messages expressed by some of the meeting's participants, the latest of which came this week from Iran, which said it would attend the event - but won't agree to the freeze.