Shipping Confidence Begins Improving in Second Half of Year

May 2015 had previously seen confidence sink to all-time lows.

Moore Stephens has found that the three months ended August 2015 has seen shipping confidence rise higher than it was in the first half of the year, though respondents indicated that they are still struggling with plunging freight rates and overcapacity, Marine Link reports.

The survey found that confidence was at 5.9 on a scale from 1 to 10 compared to the 5.3 recorded at the end of May 2015, which was also the lowest level ever recorded since the survey began in 2008.

Across the board, Asia, Europe and North America all purportedly saw increases in confidence, though the company said that the number of responses predicting that finance costs would rise in the next year rose from 40 percent in May to 48 percent in August.

"Perversely, the main reason for the improved level of confidence revealed by our latest survey may be the same as that which saw the industry’s perceived fortunes equalling a seven-year low in May of this year," said Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens partner.

"Volatility works both ways."

Respondents reportedly noted that in addition to oversupply and rates, the rising number of regulations and the increase of non-traditional shipping sources entering the market are adding to worries.

However, Greiner added that although conditions look to be tough in the near future, the growth in the volume of world trade is still expected to rise from 2.8 percent in 2014 to 4 percent in 2016.

"The long-term outlook for shipping offers encouragement to existing and new investors alike," he said. 

"Those who are not attracted by the longer-term prospects, meanwhile, will doubtless exit the industry, and in the process may help solve some of its problems.”

Earlier this year, Maersk Line also predicted that many of the industry's mid-sized players would likely be squeezed out of the market due to unprofitability.