The conventional and biofuels market panel at SIBCON 2026. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

The question is not which future fuel will replace the roughly 300 million tonnes of conventional fuel oil shipping burns today, but what combination of fuels takes what share of it, the panel on the market for conventional and biofuels to 2030 at SIBCON 2026 in Singapore heard on Wednesday.

Even fuels with relatively low supply levels add up to that total: "if you have each alternative fuel take 1 million, 2 million, 5 million, you will get into that number."

Asked in the session's closing round whether the industry will still be discussing the same fuel options in five years or will have seen winners and losers emerge, some felt that on a realistic five-year horizon biofuels will be the winner, with LNG coming as well, but the conversation five years from now will be a different one.

Others expected ethanol to rise but LNG and conventional fuels to remain a very large part of the mix, arguing that the number of alternative fuels has to be rationalised as scale cannot be built across so many competing products.

Another said the multi-fuel outcome holds for at least a decade, with three things deciding which fuels narrow the field: availability, regulatory clarity, and economics.

Different geographies, feedstocks, and regulatory frameworks mean some regions lean to biofuels and others to methanol.

The panel was moderated by Marcus Hand, editor of Seatrade Maritime News, with Alexander Prokopakis, executive director of IBIA, Andrew Brueckner, global head of marine, distillates trading and origination at bp, Harro Booth, chief executive of ElbOil, and Capt. Rahul Choudhuri, president, strategic partnerships, at VPS.

The session was held under the Chatham House rule, so this report is made without attributing any point to an individual speaker.

Other Points From the Session

• Every fuel entering the market needs regulation and safety standards, because a problem with one fuel takes the whole industry down with it.
• Owners worried about biofuel blends should talk to their supplier as those who started with biofuel pilots and now take it continuously have reported no issues.
• Occasional quality questions have not meant engine harm, and that is a message the market should hear.
• Physical suppliers have marine technical experts who understand how the fuel is blended and how it runs through the engine.
• Research into biofuel supply chains and feedstocks is what stops the industry being surprised as to what they are.
• Many owners already use biofuel, and some owners are making it a strategic component of being both green and competitive on price.
• Shipping cannot be separated from the world's energy transition: global energy use of 600 exajoules is heading for 900 by 2050, and about 40% of it, as gas and fuel, is carried by ships. Decarbonising the ship does not decarbonise the cargo.
• In 100 years the marine engine has gone from about 25% efficiency to about 50%, which is the kind of progress the industry should talk about.
• The advice for the transition, borrowed from Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader who launched the country's market reforms, is to cross the river by feeling the stones: decide step by step and do not get washed away.