The fuel market outlook panel at SIBCON 2026. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

Bunker buying has switched from price-led to supply-led, and the answer the market is reaching for is partnership, including pooled demand, supply guarantees three to six months out, and suppliers and buyers planning port by port, the fuel market outlook panel at SIBCON 2026 in Singapore heard on Wednesday.

The IEA's published commentary puts cumulative export losses through Hormuz at close to 2.8 billion barrels, softened by bypass routes, higher output elsewhere, weaker Chinese demand, and the emergency stocks released since March.

Diesel is the product to watch: what is left of those stock releases is now being pointed at diesel by the IEA and the G7.

The panel also heard diesel and gasoil prices remain well above pre-war levels, but for buyers the first question is no not about price but rather whether fuel is available.

Buyers are also bunkering in far more ports than before as the arbitrage opens and shuts.

Arriving unannounced in Singapore now costs real money, delegates heard.

To help meet these new realities more pooling is expected on both the buyer and supply sides, delegates were told, as there may not be enough fuel for everybody in every port.

On the fuel mix, the panel was clear: alternative fuels are a sliver of today's demand, the product mix is mostly conventional, and the chicken and egg loop fur uptake of alternatives only breaks when suppliers get the commitments that let them put barges, tanks, and sourcing in place.

Looking to 2030, delegates were warned against kicking the can down the road, as that lets the net-zero commitment slip while security takes the stage.

The session was moderated by Clara Ferreira Marques, managing editor for commodities and energy, Asia, at Bloomberg, with Anders Grønborg, chief commercial officer of Bunker Holding Group, Peter Grünwaldt, vice president and head of bunkers at Hafnia and co-CEO of Seascale Energy, and Tan Sue-Ern, head of the IEA's Regional Cooperation Centre.

Below are other key takeaways from the session that was held under the Chatham House rule, so what follows is reported without attributing any point to an individual speaker.

The Supply Picture

• Flows through the Strait of Hormuz were 7.6 million b/d in August, 13.1 million b/d below pre-war, according to the IEA's latest published commentary.
• Gulf producers are focused on bypass routes: ADNOC's second pipeline to Fujairah is due in 2027, and Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline on September 22 after last month's drone strikes, reporting 5.8 million b/d through it by October 6.
• Bypass routes and extra production do not replace the Gulf as the key source of refined products, and there is no final fix without a lasting settlement in the region.
• Brent spot averaged $114/bbl in September and touched $131/bbl on September 15, according to the EIA's October outlook.
• Prices are high but the market had braced for $200 oil when the conflict began.
• Uncertainty is expected to last at least the rest of this year, with hopes of a resolution next year.
• The LNG industry is in its second major crisis in under four years, with Qatar's exports cut off by the Strait closure and North American LNG covering part of the gap.

Supply Over Price

• Shipping routes have changed and ports that were never bunkering stops are opening up, so a supplier has to know the routes as well as the fuel.
• Longer voyages shift demand to new ports and away from suppliers in regions ships no longer call, raising the question of whether those suppliers can survive the politics.
• Some shipowners are aggregating demand to buy at scale to gain access to contracts they could not secure alone.

The Fuel Mix

• A dual-fuel vessel capable of burning methanol or ammonia does not necessarily translate into demand for alternative fuel.
• There is no single fuel solution for shipping: the mix will be conventional fuels, LNG, and more methanol and ammonia over time.
• With freight rates where they are, and the fact owners make money only when ships move, alternative fuels are being looked at in a different way with buyers lifting whatever fuel is there.
• High sulphur fuel oil will stay "for a while" on the back of scrubbers.
• Biofuels have the nearest-term technical advantage but the hardest feedstock problem, competing with sustainable aviation fuel and with road biofuel mandates that governments, including several in the region, have raised since the crisis began.
• The industry is poor at communicating its own progress on the green agenda: container ships that burned more than 200 tonnes a day are now twice the size, carry twice the cargo, and burn less than half the fuel.
• The worry is the available of specific molecules, with other industries competing for them and shipping not always able to pay the most.

Compliance and Quality

• Some buyers and suppliers are going further than the law demands on compliance to keep clients, banks, and the supply chain safe.
• Fuel traceability is becoming harder, and confidence in where fuel comes from is now part of commercial decisions.
• The right price is the one that makes the ship move, on quantity and on quality: 1,000 tonnes is one thing, what that 1,000 tonnes comprises is another.
• Pre-testing fuel is a welcomed practice.
• Buying on price alone can become a race to the bottom, and the bunker market "sometimes gets the surprise it deserves".
• Audits and know-your-counterparty checks are more important than ever.