Meanwhile, Exxon chief says global stockpile depletion will reach critical levels within weeks: File Image/Pixabay

With the U.S./Iran peace talks in seeming disarray, oil prices on Tuesday climbed over 5 percent – as insiders and analysts warning that the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more severe the world’s oil and fuels stockpiles will deplete.

Helima Croft, the head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, summarized trading sentiment on Tuesday by remarking, “There has been quiet panic building.”

This came on the heels of earlier remarks by Neil Chapman, an Exxon Mobil senior vice president, who told delegates at a conference, “We’re approaching unheard-of inventory levels; I mean, really, really low levels…You can debate whether it’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks, but once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”

As of mid-session Tuesday, Brent rose over 4.2 percent to $94.98 per barrel, its biggest increase in almost a month; West Texas Intermediate rose over 5.5 percent to $92.16 per barrel, its biggest increase since the end of April.

Facts continued to be difficult to discern with regard to the U.S./Iran hostilities: secretary of state Marco Rubio told lawmakers that division and dysfunction within the Iranian regime are the reason behind the stop-and-go nature of the peace talks (indeed, Iran’s president reportedly handed in his resignation over the weekend, stoking rumours that the regime was on the verge of collapse).

Further drama involving U.S./Iran hostilities was a rift between U.S. president Donald Trump and Isreal prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which the former during a phone call to the latter reportedly said, “You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me…..everybody hates you now; everybody hates Israel because of this.”

The call was in response to Iran threatening to end peace negotiations over Israel’s actions in Lebanon.

The cumulative effect of rumours, claims and counterclaims was expressed by Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.: he told Bloomberg TV, “Clients are tired…It’s a challenging trading environment with headlines moving prices up and down, [and] positioning in oil markets is significantly more limited than at the start.”

In other oil news on Tuesday, a report from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, held that most oil producers in the Middle East will boost crude output by double-digit percentages next year, rebounding from the war and the Hormuz closure; Iraq, which was the first to slash output due to shipping disruptions, will see the biggest percentage jump, at 34.1 percent.

Also on Tuesday and according to vessel-loading data reviewed by media, Venezuela exported an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, a massive 61 percent jump compared to May 2025; Venezuela has been steadily increasing its oil exports since the U.S. took control over its oil sales early this year.