The estimates are based on 10th edition of DNV's Maritime Forecast to 2050 report. Image Credit: CMA CGM

• LNG could reach 42 million mt of potential use by 2030 if LNG-capable ships fully use their LNG capability
• LNG carriers could account for 60% of potential LNG use
• Other LNG-capable ships used only 32-52% of their LNG capability between 2019 and 2024
• Methanol could reach 7 million mt of potential use by 2030
• Fuel prices and regulations will influence how much LNG ships actually use

LNG use as marine fuel could reach around 42 million mt by 2030 if the fleet fully utilises its LNG marine fuel use capability, according to the 10th edition of DNV's Maritime Forecast to 2050 report.

The figure is equivalent to around 48 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and forms the largest share of the almost 60 Mtoe of alternative-fuel consumption that could be reached by 2030 if the global fleet's alternative-fuel capacity is fully utilised.

The estimate is based on the fleet and current orderbook through 2030.

The figure should be viewed as potential use rather than a forecast of actual LNG consumption.

Most LNG-capable ships are equipped with dual-fuel engines, giving them the ability to operate on LNG as well as conventional marine fuels.

This means an LNG-capable ship will not necessarily burn LNG all the time.

Estimated utilisation of LNG consumption capacity shows that LNG-capable ships have generally operated below their maximum fuel-use capacity.

Between 2019 and 2024, LNG carriers used around 69-79% of their estimated LNG consumption capacity, while other LNG-capable ships used 32-52%.

Utilisation fell in 2022 before rising again towards 2024.

DNV attributed the gap between actual and potential use mainly to high LNG prices and a lack of regulatory drivers to reduce GHG emissions.

In 2022, LNG bunkering prices were considerably higher than fuel oil prices at major bunkering hubs including Singapore and Rotterdam, making diesel operation more attractive in some cases.

This was the time when LNG prices shot up following the Ukraine war. 

"When LNG bunkering prices are high, operating in diesel mode can be more cost-effective, leading many owners and charterers to limit LNG use," the report states.

"Some operators also prioritize fuel oil bunkering over LNG to avoid the extended off-hire time associated with LNG bunkering."

LNG Carriers Drive Potential

LNG carriers are expected to account for approximately 60% of potential LNG consumption in 2030, largely because of the size of the LNG carrier fleet.

Outside LNG carriers, the container segment could account for around 30% of the total fleet's LNG consumption capacity, making it the largest LNG-consuming segment among other LNG-capable ships.

DNV also points to a challenge for LNG carriers using low-GHG methane.

The vessels rely on boil-off gas from cargo tanks containing fossil LNG to manage tank pressure, with the gas typically used for propulsion. A flexible chain of custody system would therefore be needed to enable GHG reductions from liquefied low-GHG methane.

Methanol Second

Methanol has the second-highest potential for use in 2030, at around 7 Mtoe, equivalent to approximately 5 million mt of methanol.

Container ships account for around 80% of total methanol-fuel capability, followed by bulk carriers at about 5%. Ultra-large container vessels and new Panamax container ships together represent around 60% of projected methanol capability.

However, methanol-capable ships have also historically used only a portion of their potential.

Between 2019 and 2024, methanol carriers used 11-75% of their estimated methanol capability, while other methanol-capable ships used only 0-12%.

Utilisation among methanol carriers was high in 2020, fell in 2021 and then increased through 2023 and 2024.

DNV said the high utilisation in 2020 coincided with a collapse in methanol prices, driven mainly by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on industrial activity and methanol demand.

As with LNG, the vast majority of methanol consumed so far has been fossil-based.

The figures highlight the difference between fuel capability and actual fuel use.

LNG has the largest potential among alternative fuels for 2030, but how much of that potential is realised will depend on fuel prices, bunkering availability, operating economics and regulatory incentives.