• Ship & Bunker raises G20-VLSFO Q3 forecast to $705/mt, from $604/mt in last month's outlook
• EIA lifts Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $85.21/bbl, up $11/bbl from its July outlook
• Move reverses much of July's $27/bbl cut, made on hopes supply disruptions would ease
• Full-year 2026 Brent forecast climbs to $86.81/bbl from $81.91/bbl last month
• Current G20-VLSFO price stands at 861.50/mt; Singapore 847.50/mt, Rotterdam 660.00/mt

Ship & Bunker has raised its outlook for global bunker prices after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today lifted its Brent crude forecast in the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), erasing much of the optimism over easing supply disruptions that drove last month's cuts.

In last month's outlook, EIA had slashed its Q3 2026 Brent forecast by $27/bbl on the assumption that Strait of Hormuz disruptions would ease.

With conflict the region actually worsening since then, constraints have instead persisted resulting in much of that reduction having now been reversed.

EIA now forecasts Brent to average $85.21/bbl in Q3 2026 and $78.00/bbl in Q4, up from $74.03/bbl and $70.00/bbl respectively in last month's outlook.

For the full year, EIA sees Brent averaging $86.81/bbl in 2026, up $4.90/bbl from the July STEO forecast of $81.91/bbl.

The 2027 full-year forecast has also been lifted, from $64.76/bbl to $69.39/bbl.

The agency has also increased its estimates of Middle East shut-in crude production compared with last month, and now assumes severe constraints on Hormuz transits will persist through August.

Its data shows closure-related shut-ins peaked at more than 10 million b/d between March and May, easing to around 5.5 million b/d in July, with disruptions forecast to average 6.6 million b/d across Q3 before falling to 4.2 million b/d in Q4 and 1.6 million b/d in Q1 2027.

Even once most regional production returns to near pre-conflict levels in early 2027, EIA expects ongoing disruptions of about 600,000 b/d to continue through the end of that year.

The lost supply has driven a large drawdown in global oil inventories, which EIA estimates fell by an average of 4.2 million b/d in Q2 with a further 3.8 million b/d decline expected in Q3, keeping prices elevated until flows normalise and stocks are replenished.

Brent had fallen as low as $69/bbl in early July before rising through the month as the scale of the continued disruption became clear, and EIA expects prices to hold near early-August levels through Q3 before easing as traffic through the strait gradually recovers.

Bunker Price Implications

Based on EIA's updated crude outlook, Ship & Bunker now forecasts VLSFO prices at primary bunkering ports, as tracked by the G20-VLSFO Index, to average $705/mt in Q3 2026 and $646/mt in Q4, up from $604/mt and $571/mt respectively in last month's outlook.

For the full year, the revised EIA forecast implies a G20-VLSFO average of $718/mt in 2026 and $574/mt in 2027, compared with $668/mt and $528/mt in the July outlook.

The G20-HSFO Index is now forecast to average $593/mt in Q3 and $605/mt for full year 2026, up from $512/mt and $567/mt respectively last month, while the G20-MGO Index is forecast at $1,103/mt in Q3 and $1,124/mt for the full year, up from $930/mt and $1,029/mt.

Current G20-VLSFO prices stand at 861.50/mt, with VLSFO prices at 847.50/mt in Singapore and 660.00/mt in Rotterdam.

In Singapore, the world's largest marine fuel hub by volume, Ship & Bunker forecasts VLSFO to average $666/mt in Q3 and $678/mt for full year 2026, up from $566/mt and $627/mt respectively in the July outlook. At Rotterdam, the key European hub, the Q3 VLSFO forecast is $602/mt and $613/mt for the full year, compared with $520/mt and $575/mt last month.

Ship & Bunker publishes bunker price forecasts for every port and index it covers, based on the Brent forecasts from the monthly EIA STEO.

The forecasts are based on the average price relationship between each fuel and Brent over the previous 12 months.