• Implied fuel demand of the global orderbook up 10.3% since July to 64.2 million mt a year
• Implied LNG demand up 12.3% to 16.9 million mtoe, conventional oil bunkers up 11.1% to 40.2 million mt
• Methanol-capable ships on order up from 264 to 274 but their implied demand slips 3.6% to 3.8 million mtoe.
• Methanol-capable boxships on order fall from 129 to 113 as LNG-capable boxships rise from 470 to 531
• 7,305 ships on order, 1,186 of them LNG-capable and 274 methanol-capable

The implied bunker demand of the world's orderbook has risen by more than 10% in three months, but methanol demand is the only fuel category to have fallen in that time, according to Ship & Bunker analysis of the latest Clarksons Research orderbook data.

Implied demand from ships on order at the start of October is about 64.2 million mtoe a year once delivered, up from 58.2 million mtoe for the orderbook at the start of July, with about 650 more ships on order, taking the total to 7,305.

The figures combine Clarksons' orderbook data shared with Ship & Bunker with the latest fuel consumption per deadweight tonne that each type and size of ship reported to the IMO's Data Collection System (DCS) for 2025.

Demand data for alternative fuels is expressed on a metric tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) basis.

Conventionally fuelled tonnage still dominates, at 40.2 million mt of the total, 11.1% on July.

LNG-capable ships account for a further 16.9 million mtoe, up 12.3%, and ships capable of running on other alternative fuels for 3.4 million mtoe, up 8.6%.

Methanol Slips

Methanol-capable tonnage, by contrast, has fallen from 3.9 million mtoe to 3.8 million mtoe of implied annual demand, down 3.5%, taking its share of the orderbook from 6.7% to 5.9%.

The number of methanol-capable ships on order has actually risen, from 264 to 274, but the ships being added are smaller and burn less fuel than the ones that have left the list.

Containerships make up most of the methanol orderbook, and there the count has fallen from 129 to 113, cutting their implied demand from 2.6 million mt to 2.4 million mt.

The drop is concentrated in the 120,000-200,000 DWT band, where methanol-capable orders fell from 78 to 68 while LNG-capable orders in the same band rose from 258 to 288.

In the largest band, above 200,000 DWT, LNG-capable orders rose from 109 to 145 while methanol-capable orders stayed at 11.

Across all sizes, LNG-capable boxships on order rose from 470 to 531, and conventionally fuelled boxships from 1,054 to 1,221.

Methanol-capable tankers on order also fell, from 27 to 24, while the gains came in bulk carriers, up from 49 to 65, and general cargo ships, up from one to 17, both types that burn less than large container ship.

The Fleet

Containerships are the largest single source of orderbook demand at 26.7 million mt, up from 23.7 million mt in July, followed by tankers at 13.6 million mt and bulk carriers at 10.6 million mt.

Readers should note that the demand figures count ships by what they are built to burn, not by what they will burn: a dual-fuel ship is counted as LNG- or methanol-capable whether or not it ever lifts the alternative fuel.

To that end, actual demand for alternatives may be lower, and conventional fuels higher than stated.

The same method puts the implied annual bunker demand of the existing fleet of ships above 5,000 GT at 266.2 million mt, up 1.2% on July.

With the implied demand from in-scope vessels covered by 2025 IMO DCS data at 246 million mt, this hints at demand from vessels 5,000 GT and above that fall outside of DCS scope - such as those on domestic trades only - as being around 20 million mtoe.