IMO Headquarters, London. File Image. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker.

• Liberia/Argentina/Panama GFI paper emerging as frontrunner alternative to NZF
• Saudi Arabia, Russia, GCC states, and US all signalling support or interest
• Remaining NZF backers include EU, Norway, and Pacific Island States
• Japan paper draws interest as possible middle ground
• Intersessional proposed for September, MEPC 85 for November

Support for the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF) appears to be fading this week at MEPC 84 in London, with delegates increasingly favouring the alternative GFI-based framework submitted by Liberia, Argentina, and Panama, Ship & Bunker understands.

The Liberia proposal differs most notably from the IMO NZF in that is has a revised Global Fuel Intensity (GFI) framework, where emissions targets are adjusted based on the demonstrated uptake of commercially viable low-carbon fuels, and scraps the creation of an IMO Fund in favour of flexibility measures such as credit trading, banking, and limited borrowing to support compliance.

The committee, which began meeting on April 27, spent much of Tuesday working through national positions on the GHG agenda item.

But this is not to say the NZF has been completely abandoned, and it is understood that Mexico, Brazil, Australia, Colombia, Switzerland, South Africa, and Malta are all reported to have all expressed support for it, either in its current form or with modifications.

Norway is understood to also prefer the NZF but has indicated it could work with a separate paper submitted by Japan.

The EU, with Cyprus holding the Council presidency, also came out in support of the NZF.

Pacific Island states, which have been among the most vocal champions of the NZF given their acute vulnerability to climate change, are understood to be still pressing hard for the original NZF framework to be preserved.

The Liberia Proposal

But against that, Saudi Arabia is understood to have called for the committee to proceed on the basis of the Liberia paper, cancel the resumption of the second extraordinary session (MEPC/ES.2), and instead convene an intersessional working group.

Ship & Bunker understands that any such intersessional working group on GHG would be scheduled for September, with MEPC 85 then taking place mid-November.

Russia and Sierra Leone have also backed the Liberia proposal, Ship & Bunker understands, and by late in the day GCC states were also said to be aligning broadly behind it.

The United States, which has formally submitted its opposition to the NZF (MEPC 84/7/41), reiterated its position and called for intersessional work to consider all alternative proposals.

Washington is understood to have described the Liberia paper as "interesting" - language that, while measured, amounts to a degree of endorsement from the party seen as most responsible for blocking the NZF at MEPC/ES.2 last October.

Singapore is reported to have indicated it is open to compromise and has expressed support for the Japan paper, while Turkey and Tanzania are also understood to be open to alternative proposals.

China has indicated openness to alternatives without backing any specific submission, sources told Ship & Bunker.

The EU, meanwhile, appears to be weighing its options as the prospect of an intersessional process grows - a move that would effectively defer and potentially reshape the NZF.

Japan's paper, which has drawn interest from Norway and Singapore as a possible middle ground, proposes keeping the NZF's GFI trajectory and surplus unit mechanism but removing mandatory payments into the IMO Net-Zero Fund - a key sticking point for many and the element some critics have likened to a global carbon tax.

It also calls for easing emissions targets from 2030 onwards, citing concerns that current levels could constrain the use of fuels such as LNG.

Tokyo has described the proposals as intended to bridge divisions and said it remains open to other ideas, positioning itself as a potential broker between the NZF bloc and those pushing for a more fundamental rewrite.

MEPC 84 runs until May 1.