• Peninsula expects continued disruption, pressure on product flows and prices, and high freight
  • "Particular tightness on HSFO into Asia", with only a robust peace deal changing the picture
  • Plan three to six months ahead for physical supply, but that need not mean fixing all price exposure now
  • "Choosing reliable supply partners is more important than price"

Peninsula's base case for the months ahead is continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, with particular tightness in HSFO supply into Asia, according to the marine fuel supplier's head of physical sales Jonas Bentsen.

"Nobody can confidently predict how the next six months will develop, but Peninsula's base case is continued disruption, with pressure on product flows and prices, together with a high freight environment," he told Ship & Bunker ahead of the IBIA Annual Convention 2026 in New York this week, where he will be speaking.

"We see particular tightness on HSFO into Asia."

"Singapore is obviously one of the world's most important bunkering hubs, but it is also part of a wider Asian supply chain. If disruption around Hormuz continues, the key issue for buyers here will increasingly be security and certainty of supply, not simply price."

The one thing that would change that outlook is an end to the conflict.

"Naturally this turbulence is sustained by geopolitical action and uncertainty, so any robust peace deal will dramatically change our base case landscape," he said adding that “it remains to be seen how the domestic political landscape in the USA will alter both market perception and reality.”

Supply Versus Price

Until then, buyers will continue to see spot avails tighten, and indeed, delegates at SIBCON heard last month that buyers in Singapore are now advised to fix bunker supplies three to six months ahead.

However, Bentsen draws a distinction within that advice.

"When we talk about buyers planning three to six months ahead, I would distinguish between securing physical supply and fixing price," he said.

"Buyers should absolutely be planning further ahead and having conversations with us about future requirements, but that doesn't necessarily mean fixing all price exposure today. We think the priority should be availability, optionality and the strength of the counterparty behind the supply."

"This is where Peninsula's model is increasingly relevant," he said.

The company says it has been deliberately diversifying its supply sources, product origins, and supply locations, while developing greater flexibility to move product between regions as market conditions change.

"Our advice is simple: plan earlier, secure your supply, manage your price exposure sensibly, and work with a trusted partner that has the global relationships and flexibility to deliver when the market changes."

Customers also need to ask themselves what value their supplier adds, Bentsen said.

"We see the market maturing beyond price, and in times of tightening supply, you need a partner who has control of their supply chain from cargo sourcing, logistics scale, strong liquidity and funding, through to quality assurance and flexibility of supply," he said.

"Although we cannot predict the future, it's clear that global geopolitical events are becoming more frequent and commonplace. Choosing reliable supply partners is more important than price."