DNV says demand for low-GHG marine fuel could reach 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 185 Mtoe by 2050. File Image / Pixabay

• Low-GHG marine fuel demand could reach 4-22 Mtoe by 2030
• Demand could rise to 33-185 Mtoe by 2050
• Biofuels are expected to play a key role in the early transition
• E-fuels are expected to gain importance as demand for biofuels rises
• IMO regulation will be a major factor shaping future fuel demand
• Low-GHG global fuel supply could reach up to 270 Mtoe by 2030

The market for low-GHG marine fuels is expected to enter a period of rapid growth after 2030, with shipping demand potentially reaching 185 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2050, according to the 10th edition of DNV's Maritime Forecast to 2050 report.

The report released this week estimates shipping's demand for low-GHG marine fuels at 4-22 Mtoe in 2030, rising to between 33 Mtoe and 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on the regulatory and decarbonization pathway.

“Beyond 2030, the marine low-GHG fuel market could enter rapid growth and possibly reach saturation closer to 2050,” DNV said.

The wide range reflects two different scenarios used by DNV.

In the high-demand scenario, the Net-Zero Framework (NZF) is adopted as currently designed and takes effect from 2029, with remedial-unit prices high enough to drive emissions reductions in line with annual fleet-level targets.

In the low-demand scenario, the NZF is rejected indefinitely. No new global GHG regulations are introduced, leaving the existing FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS frameworks as the main regional measures.

Under these scenarios, low-GHG fuel demand rises from 4 Mtoe at the lower end in 2030 to 33 Mtoe in 2050, while the higher-demand pathway rises from 22 Mtoe in 2030 to 185 Mtoe in 2050.

As the market expands, relevant marine fuel types could eventually become sufficiently widespread to support liquid spot markets and broader global availability, although some niche fuels could remain constrained.

“Which fuel types stay relevant, and which remain niche, depends on many factors including, among others, feedstock availability, production costs, distribution infrastructure, ship fuel technology development, and competition from other demand sectors,” DNV said.

DNV estimates global supply of low-GHG fuels could reach up to 270 Mtoe by 2030 - assuming if all announced fuel production projects are completed and commissioned. This figure is almost double compared to 2025.

Biofuels To Play Early Role

Biofuels are expected to play an important role in the early stages of the transition, with some pathways offering relatively low abatement costs.

DNV estimates that by 2030, some pathways including bio-methane from manure, sugarcane ethanol and bio-diesel from waste oils could achieve abatement costs of around $180-$300/tCO2eq.

However, sustainability criteria could limit conventional food- and feed-crop-based biofuels.

The longer-term supply picture is more challenging.

DNV estimates maximum global biofuel production potential at around 1,300 Mtoe by mid-century, while demand for low-GHG fuels across all sectors could exceed 2,200 Mtoe by 2050 in a net-zero scenario.

“This indicates that biofuel demand may outpace supply, placing upward pressure on biofuel prices,” DNV said.

Shipping will also compete with other sectors for available feedstocks.

Aviation and road transport could place additional pressure on resources used to produce biofuels, while low-GHG methane will compete with demand from sectors such as power generation, manufacturing and buildings.

E-Fuels Expected To Gain Ground

As demand for biofuels grows, DNV expects other fuel pathways to become increasingly important.

“As demand increases in shipping and other sectors, non-biofuel pathways must therefore be deployed,” the report said.

Blue fuels are expected to remain in an intermediate cost band, with DNV estimating an abatement cost of around $420/tCO2eq for blue ammonia in 2050.

E-fuels could become more competitive as production scales up. DNV estimates the abatement cost of e-ammonia could fall from around $550/tCO2eq in 2040 to $380/tCO2eq by 2050.

However, achieving those projected costs will depend on the availability and price of renewable electricity, large-scale production and sustained demand across sectors.

Regulation To Shape Demand

Regulation will remain a key factor in determining how quickly alternative marine fuels are adopted.

The difference between the 33 Mtoe low-demand case and 185 Mtoe high-demand case in 2050 shows how strongly DNV's outlook depends on the regulatory pathway.

The higher figure assumes the IMO framework is implemented with strong enough price signals to drive emissions reductions, while the lower figure assumes the framework is rejected and the industry continues mainly under existing regional rules.

“Sustained political commitment to decarbonization is therefore a prerequisite for demand for low-GHG-fuels, and consequently their pricing,” DNV said.

DNV also does not expect a single global price for marine low-GHG fuels.

In the early market, prices are likely to be negotiated through long-term offtake agreements, while regional spot markets could emerge for fuels such as drop-in bio-diesel and liquefied bio-methane.

The outlook points to a marine fuel market that could become significantly larger after 2030, but whose eventual size and fuel mix will depend heavily on IMO regulation, regional policies, fuel costs and the availability of sustainable feedstocks and renewable energy.

The report can be downloaded from here.