Meanwhile, Goldman maintains its Brent and WTI 2026 forecasts: File Image/Pixabay

An Israel/Lebanon ceasefire that encouraged Iran to announce a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also caused a massive plunge in geopolitical fears as well as oil prices – to the tune of a whopping 9 percent, with further losses expected if U.S. president Donald Trump is accurate in predicting an impending end to the U.S./Iran war.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, posted on X that passage for all commercial vessels through the strait “is declared completely open,” but added it would stay open for the remaining period of the 10-day Lebanon ceasefire; as a result, Brent fell 9.1 percent to settle at $90.38 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dropped 9.4 percent to settle at $82.59 per barrel.

Trump posted on social media that the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports would remain “in full force” until both Washington and Tehran agreed on terms of a peace deal, which he added “should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated” including the removal of nuclear material.

Shares of cruise ships and airlines, which are major consumers of fuel, soared: Carnival rose 7 percent, while United Airlines and Southwest Airlines gained 7.1 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.

Goldman Sachs said the 9 percent plunge of oil could lead to a faster unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium and send prices lower in the near-term, and that softer demand and easing supply disruptions have balanced out the risks in its oil price outlook.

However, the bank maintained its Brent and WTI forecasts for 2026 at $83 per barrel and $78 per barrel respectively, assuming oil flows through the Hormuz normalize by mid-May.

Meanwhile on Friday, at least eight crude carriers advanced toward the Hormuz chokepoint within hours of Iran declaring it open to shipping, but media in the Islamic republic  speculated on the possibility of restricting passage for ships tied to “hostile” countries, while also warning that any continuation of a U.S. naval blockade could shut the Strait again.

That prompted Julianne Geiger, researcher for Oilprice.com, to write, “That leaves the market in a familiar place: operational ambiguity.”

For the record, Pakistan continued to shuttle between Washington and Tehran in an effort to broker a permanent peace deal; but late Friday, any optimism seemed to be tainted by Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who accused Trump of making seven “false” claims in one hour and stated “They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either.”