Countries have demonstrated their ability to get oil to market regardless: File Image/Pixabay.

The biggest exchange of fire between the U.S. and Iran since July resulted in a tumultuous session for oil trading on Wednesday, with gains as high as $2 per barrel and losses of $1 per barrel.

But as of 1448 GMT, trading was muted: Brent rose 25 cents to $94.90 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was up 10 cents at $90.32.

While pundits advanced the familiar narrative that a resumption of military attacks between Washington and Tehran could make tight world supply even more restricted, the general consensus seemed to be that such fears might be overblown.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said, "While the increase in conflicts will slow transit through the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, the market has absorbed the fact that workaround crude oil supplies can still make it to the market eventually."

Some of the supply concern was generated by warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that U.S. attacks would further restrict traffic through the strait; however, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris ‌Wright reported that 17 million barrels of ⁠oil transited the waterway on Monday, the largest volume of crude to make the passage since the ⁠war began seven months ago.

The suggestion that physical supply conditions may be improving despite a worsening military situation caused EnergyNow Media to state that “This creates an unusually binary market: a fresh attack that closes or materially restricts Hormuz could quickly push Brent toward or above $100 per barrel, while successful negotiations and sustained high tanker flows could strip several dollars of geopolitical premium from crude.”

Still, some business sectors warned of headwinds resulting from the conflict, case in point: Ryanair, the biggest low-fare airline in Europe and one of the most hedged airlines, which on Wednesday warned that some of its less well-hedged competitors could struggle to survive this winter amid high jet fuel costs (currently hovering at about $140 per barrel).

Meanwhile, three sources close to the matter told media that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will likely leave its oil production policy unchanged for October when its core meet on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman spent the bulk of this year raising their monthly production quotas; however, actual production has lagged as the Iran war disrupted exports through the Hormuz, and the war in Ukraine has compromised exports from Russia and Kazakhstan.