IMO Headquarters, London. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker.

• 59 countries backed the NZF as a basis for further work
• 51 countries pushed to reopen and weaken elements of the framework
• Alternative proposals from Japan and Argentina failed to gain majority support
• Next key meetings: intersessional talks in September ahead of MEPC 85

The UCL Shipping and Oceans Research says the Net Zero Framework (NZF) has regained momentum at last week’s MEPC 84 meeting, with most member states backing the agreed text in April last year as the basis for further work.

59 countries supported the NZF at MEPC 84, reversing the earlier simple majority that had led to the framework’s adjournment at the MEPC.ES2 session, it said in an email statement on Friday.

Countries such as Brazil, the UK, Australia, Canada, Australia, South Africa and Mexico have supported NZF, Ship & Bunker understands.

Support was strengthened by five countries switching back to the NZF and 10 others moving from abstention to support, while only two countries shifted the other way.

“MEPC 84 was a refreshing return to IMO’s normal meeting style, the pressure to reach a conclusion was not there, but for the opponents of meaningful and effective IMO GHG regulation, this was an opportunity for them to finish what they started at MEPC.ES2, Dr Tristan Smith, Professor at UCL, said.

“Their failure to do so is critical for shipping and trade’s future success, as well as multilateralism's future and for the chances of an equitable energy transition."

Alternative Proposals Fail To Gain Traction

Competing proposals failed to gather meaningful backing. Japan’s proposal secured support from just seven member states, while the Argentina-led proposal drew backing from 24, leaving neither close to forming a majority - even if combined.

“The outcome of MEPC 84 makes clear that the Net Zero Framework is not only still alive, but remains the central pillar for ongoing negotiations, Dr Annika Frosch, research fellow at UCL, said.

“With a majority of member states reaffirming it as the basis for further work, attention now turns to how it can be refined and carried through to adoption.”

51 countries favored proposals to reopen the framework for substantial changes, including removing the carbon pricing element and/or weakening agreed limits on carbon intensity in fuels - moves that could prolong the use of conventional marine fuels, as per information seen by Ship & Bunker.

These countries included the US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Argentina, Liberia, Venezuela, Qatar and Malaysia, among others

Focus Shifts To Refinements Ahead Of Next Talks

"MEPC 84 suggests there is limited appetite for starting again or shifting to a much weaker alternative. The more credible path now appears to be targeted refinements to the agreed Net Zero Framework, while preserving the elements that make it meaningful and effective," Dr Pinar Langer, research fellow at UCL, said.

UCL said momentum had strengthened in key regions including Africa, the Caribbean and the EU, but cautioned that positions remain fluid and adoption is not guaranteed.

The next key milestone will be intersessional talks in September, ahead of a potential decision at MEPC 85 later this year.