Mass balancing could help shipping access biomethane at scale. File Image / Pixabay

Mass balancing could be key to unlocking biomethane as a scalable marine fuel option for shipping by 2030, according to a new analysis by the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS).

The report published on Tuesday estimates global biomethane supply could reach around 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2030 in a base case, rising to 52 bcm in a policy-driven scenario.

The study estimates the IMO’s proposed Net-Zero Framework could create unconstrained demand equivalent to around 30 bcm of biomethane in 2030 if the fuel met the entire demand for low-emissions energy.

This means biomethane could theoretically cover around 70% of shipping’s 2030 demand for low-emissions energy in the base case.

However, the report stresses that actual uptake would be lower, with the methane-capable fleet, bunkering infrastructure and competition from other sectors limiting demand.

Mass balancing is identified as a critical enabler. It would allow biomethane to be injected into existing natural gas networks, with its environmental attributes tracked through a certified chain of custody and allocated to maritime fuel consumption.

Without such a framework, shipping would largely depend on physically segregated biomethane supply chains, which the report says would be difficult and costly to scale before 2030.

“However, if the IMO allows globally harmonized mass balancing, biomethane could be injected into the existing natural gas grid, with its sustainability attributes tracked through a certified chain of custody and allocated to maritime fuel consumption,” it said.

The analysis concludes that biomethane could provide significant early compliance abatement while other fuels, including e-ammonia and e-methanol, scale up.