World News
Gibson: Stable Bunker Prices Means Little Fluctuation in Wordscale Flat Rates
In its Weekly Tanker Report, EA Gibson Shipbrokers (Gibson) is predicting that Worldscale flat rates (WS100) are likely to show only a slight decline in 2015 due to stability in bunker prices since last October.
"Worldscale flat rates in 2015 will decline by only around 1-2% on long haul voyages and [the data] implies even smaller changes on short haul routes," says the report.
On short haul routes, bunker prices play a smaller role in the calculation of WS100, with strong currency fluctuations being more likely to affect short haul rates for 2015, says Gibson.
Changes to sulfur emissions rules are also expected to be factored in.
"From January 2015, owners operating within the Emission Control Areas (ECAs) will incur additional voyage expense due to the requirement to burn 0.10% sulphur fuel and it will be interesting to see how the Worldscale fixed differential for miles steamed within an ECA is adjusted to account for this increased expenditure," says Gibson.
According to the report, Bunker prices are a key component in WS100 rate setting and most of the data needed for this element of next year's calculation is already on hand, being based on bunker prices from October 2013 to September 2014.
Various shippers have in recent months been announcing surcharges tied to compliance with tightening ECA regulations from January 1, 2015.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 645.50 | 3.50 | 771.50 | 1.50 |
| Rotterdam | 600.50 | 2.00 | 759.50 | 2.50 |
| Houston | 619.50 | 11.00 | 787.50 | 9.00 |
| Fujairah | 642.50 | 6.00 | 895.00 | 5.00 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 662.00 | 4.00 | 851.00 | 5.00 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 627.00 | 5.50 | 803.50 | 3.50 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 714.50 | 1.00 | 890.50 | 2.50 |
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