Overview

Demand at key marine fuel hubs jumped on a yearly basis in the fourth quarter of 2024, taking 2024's sales 4% higher than 2023 overall, according to the latest market survey of bunker sales volumes in 17 leading global locations.

As in previous quarters, Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy surveyed bunker market participants around the world alongside official data where available and found an average rise of 2.9% in volumes in the fourth quarter from the same period of 2023. The year-on-year gain compares with a 4.7% year-on-year advance in the third quarter. Q4 volumes sequentially were 2.6% higher than in Q3.

2024's total sales at the 17 locations reached 143,575 million mt, up by 4% on the year and the most since 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic curtailed global shipping demand.

The survey covers about 61.6% of the global demand total of 233.1 million mt for 2023 shown by official IMO data.

"Overall main port demand picked up in 2024 and this continued to be apparent in Q4," 2050 Marine Energy's Adrian Tolson told Ship & Bunker.

"The obvious causes of this were the disruptions in Panama and the Red Sea that increased ton miles, not to mention impending Trump tariffs and increased cargo activity towards year-end.

"Broadly speaking this supports record or very strong years in Singapore, New York, ARA, South Korea, Zhoushan and of course the Canary Islands."

Overall Global Demand

The latest offical IMO figure for global bunker demand is 233.1 million mt in 2023.

With Ship & Bunker data showing demand at the biggest hubs was up by 4% on the year in 2024, global demand could be projected at as much as 242.4 million mt for 2024.

However, a figure slightly lower than this is more likely, as demand growth at smaller ports not covered in this survey will usually be weaker than the rate at the largest hubs.

Growth Prospects Uncertain in 2025

Bunker Holding, the world's largest marine fuels firm, sees the possibility of modest further growth in 2025, accompanied by a more complex market.

"There are many predictions, and the growth rate could be anywhere from 0% to 3-4%," CEO Keld Demant told Ship & Bunker.

"What I do see is the general tendency out there, firstly for increased complexity, because we're not talking about one product, we're talking different products and different value chains.

"Right now we're seeing increased sanctions and compliance, which we also welcome very much.

"And what we see out there is the client that we are dealing with, they are getting smarter and smarter, using tools, and we want to be on that digital agenda."

A wide array of regulatory and geopolitical changes is hitting the market this year.

At the start of 2025 the phasing-in of the EU's emissions trading system for shipping ratcheted up, with shipowners now needing to buy allowances for 70% of their emission on intra-EU voyages, while the FuelEU Maritime regulation came into effect at the same time. Both changes should drive increased demand for biofuels in the short term.

President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, with his tariff agenda likely to shake up global trade.

The Mediterranean ECA comes into effect in May, driving a significant share of global bunker demand towards distillates and away from VLSFO.

April will see the use of e-BDNs become mandatory in Singapore, which may draw more demand to the city-state with improved efficiency of bunker operations.

And Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden may come to an end if the current ceasefire holds, bringing the prospect of much more widespread use of the Suez Canal and lower tonne-mile demand for shipping.

"Logically these trends, that were already showing some weakness in Q4, will revert back to older patterns in 2025, but that assumes logical global trade policies," Tolson said.

"Apart from the main disruptor in the White House, the May 1 Med ECA has to be a highlight.

"The Mediterranean already has seen movement in 2024, with Gibraltar losing demand as the year progressed, and Turkey setting very impressive demand levels as cargo has adjusted to very limited access at the Mediterranean's eastern end.

"2025 is another challenge.

"Will the underachievers of 2024 – Russia, South Africa and Hong Kong – show better demand in 2025?

"Not likely - but I am most hopeful for South Africa."

Methodology

As with the previous surveys the areas covered by the survey are Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, Fujairah, the US Gulf, South Korea, Russia, the Gibraltar Strait, Hong Kong, Panama, Zhoushan, Japan, New York, West Africa, South Africa, the Canary Islands, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Turkey. Data is sourced from a combination of market participants and official records.

Individual Market Volumes and Commentary

Singapore

Q4 2024 xxx million mt
Q4 2023 xxx million mt
Q3 2024 xxx million mt
Year-on-year change x%
Quarter-on-quarter change x%