Oil Falls On Climbing Middle East Exports, Declining Iranian Bargaining Power

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Tuesday September 29, 2026

Persistent indications that crude exports were recovering in the Middle East were finally embraced by oil traders on Tuesday, with the result being a 2 percent drop in prices mid-session – although supply concerns were said to still linger in many quarters.

As of 1703 GMT, Brent was down $1.38, or 1.3 percent, to $103.88 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate declined $2.04 or 2.1 percent, at $90.58; both benchmarks were still on track for monthly gains of 15 percent and 5.7 percent respectively.

Although the elements spurring the declines had been reported over the past week, Dennis Kissler, ⁠senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said crude was "under pressure this morning on news that the Saudi's East/West pipeline flows have moved up. ... U.S./Iran negotiations are also continuing and while seemingly far apart, both are looking for an off-ramp, and as more oil flows through the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran will have."

Data from Kpler also showed that crude exports from Middle East producers have rebounded in September to 16.3 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began seven months ago.

Meanwhile, quotes from unnamed sources earlier this week that helped influence crude prices were dismissed by the White House: specifically, U.S. president Donald Trump rejected reports that U.S. officials claimed he was willing to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for "concrete" steps regarding Iran's nuclear programme.

Given the U.S.’s hawkish stance regarding Iran, Trump’s much more persuasive remarks on Tuesday were that he had offered the Islamic republic nothing to end the war.

In other news on Tuesday, Washington said it would offer to loan energy companies up to 40 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the last batch of crude under a global deal to free up reserves in the midst of the U.S./Iran war.

Washington had made the offer back in June, but later that month companies  agreed to borrow only 500,000 barrels; energy secretary Chris Wright said https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-release-40-million-barrels-crude-strategic-petroleum-reserve-energy-2026-09-29/ his country and Japan have fulfilled their commitments under the agreement, but "several European member countries have released only a fraction of the crude oil and petroleum products they pledged."

Also on Tuesday, Abhijit Majumder, director of finance at Oil India Limited, told  media his country will boost exploration amid the Strait of Hormuz slowdowns.

Majumber said, “Disruptions to global supply chains and major energy corridors can have an immediate impact on energy flows, prices and economies worldwide.”

India’s government has an ambitious plan to boost exploration, in the wake of three consecutive years of domestic crude production declines.