World News
OPEC Downgrades Oil Price Assumptions Out to 2040
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Friday downgraded its outlook for global crude oil prices out to 2040, as part of a closely-watched report on global petroleum trends.
In extracts released from its World Oil Outlook, the group said its reference basket of crude produced by its members is "assumed to rise from more than $70/b in 2020 to $95/b by 2040" in 2014 dollars.
"It is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path," OPEC noted.
Nevertheless, it represents a significant reduction from last year's figures, which saw prices of $95.40 in 2020, and $101.60 in 2040.
By comparison, last Thursday the price was $31.49.
The news has obvious implications for bunker buyers, and adds weight to earlier predictions that pointed to IFO380 prices remaining under $500 per metric tonne (pmt) through to 2020.
Elsewhere in the report, OPEC has largely maintained its outlook for world oil demand, forecasting 97 million barrels per day by 2020, as compared to a forecast of 96.9 million barrels per day in the previous report.
However, the group cut its outlook for non-OPEC oil supply by 1 million barrels per day in 2020, as compared with the previous report.
It also upped the forecast for its own production by 1 million barrels per day for 2020.
OPEC's World Oil Outlook to be launched 23 December 2015.
In November, Ship & Bunker reported on OPEC reports suggesting that crude oil prices could remain under pressure until 2019.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 571.00 | 1.50 | 685.50 | 5.50 |
| Rotterdam | 516.50 | 1.50 | 677.50 | 3.50 |
| Houston | 556.00 | 6.00 | 679.00 | 1.00 |
| Fujairah | 565.00 | 4.50 | 755.00 | 1.50 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 589.00 | 3.00 | 764.50 | 3.50 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 552.00 | 3.00 | 699.00 | 2.50 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 635.50 | 1.00 | 811.50 | 11.00 |
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