Drewry: Top 3 Carrier Lines Now Have 38% of the Market Share

Drewry says the compound annual growth rate of the top 3 carriers over the last decade was 12.5%, compared to the top 20 lines' growth of 8.7%.

Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited (Drewry) says that being a "top 20 carrier" no longer means being a leading global container line, and there is now a "league-within-a-league" when it comes to the world's top 20 container lines.

Importantly, the top three box carriers - A.P. Moller–Maersk Group (Maersk), Mediterranean Shipping Company S.A. (MSC), and CMA CGM S.A. (CMA CGM) - have seen the most overall growth.

"Between 2005 and 2015 the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the top 3 carriers was 12.5 percent, significantly faster than the CAGR for the top 20 lines and the total fleet at 9.6 percent and 8.7 percent respectively," said Drewry.

"The end result is that the top 3 carriers now have about 38 percent share (up from 26 percent in 2005), which extends to 48 percent when including the other top 5 carriers Hapag-Lloyd and Evergreen (37 percent in 2005)."

Although the concentration of power of the top "isn't at a critical point just yet," Drewry says the gap to the biggest carriers will continue to grow due to the size of their orderbooks.

"While Drewry does not foresee any imminent large-scale carrier M&A, eventually membership of the top 20 will shift to take in more of the small, regional carriers in the lower reaches of the table," said Drewry.

"In doing so it will necessitate a change in the container shipping lexicon as 'top 20' will no longer be synonymous with large and mid-sized deep-sea carriers."

The top 20 carriers are said to have an aggregate fleet consisting of just less than 17 million TEU and control 87 percent of the world's available container capacity, while Maersk now reportedly controls approximately 15.5 percent of that.

"Maersk's elevated status and market leading profitability is no fluke," said Drewry.

"The company has set the template that the rest of the industry has tried to follow; aiming for higher operating efficiencies by targeting economies of scale, lower unit costs, and network optimisation.

"But with rates now at historical lows and bunker costs steadily creeping up, even a company of Maersk's stature will feel the pinch."

Earlier in June it was reported that Nils Andersen, CEO of Maersk, said that small and mid-size containership operators are set to be squeezed out the market in the coming years by larger shippers.