Global Cap on Sulfur in Bunkers Should be Phased In, Expert Suggests

David St Amand of Navigistics Consulting says the IMO should phase in the global 0.5 percent sulfur cap on bunkers.

A recent study by Navigistics Consulting and EnSys Energy concludes that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) should consider phasing in the global 0.50 percent fuel sulfur cap, which is set to be introduced in either 2020 or 2025 pending the outcome of a fuel availability study, delegates gathered this week for Motorship's 38th Propulsion & Emissions Conference have heard.

"The IMO should consider a phased approach by staggering the sulfur limit reduction, or by phasing in the new limit geographically or by ship type," said David St. Amand, President of Navigistics Consulting.

The study is said to have used the IMO's third Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) Study as a base for which to remodel anticipated demand for compliant bunkers, taking into account the possibility that slow steaming will be less common, the anticipated uptake of scrubbers, alternative fuel adoption, as well as changes in efficiency of vessel designs.

The study suggests that, if the cap was implemented and vessel speed did not increase, demand for 0.5 percent sulfur fuel would be about 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, or as much as 4.4 million bpd if uptake of scrubber technology is lower than IMO expectations.

With the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting that a 2 million bpd demand increase would create significant pressure for refiners, St. Amand suggests that a staggered introduction for the global cap would be suitable.

The study's sponsors are said to be likely to present the suggestion of a phased approach to the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee 70th session (MEPC 70), which is set to be held in October.

A decision on whether 2020 or 2025 will be the date for the new global sulfur limit is also expected then.

Last month Marine and Energy Consulting Limited's Robin Meech, who is also the new Chairman for the International Bunker Industry Association (IBIA), told Ship & bunker that the 2020 date is, now, the more likely of the two.