Investec describes price swings as unsustainable: File Image/Pixabay

The announcement Thursday that the U.S. and Iran had reached a deal to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and launch further nuclear negotiations caused oil prices to fluctuate wildly amid hopes that a peace deal will be reached – even though Tehran reiterated that it won’t give up enriching uranium and maintaining uranium stockpiles.

Hawks pointed out that Iran’s habit of stretching out negotiations to their favour was illustrated on Thursday by the Islamic republic launching a botched drone strike against a U.S. military base (in retaliation for previous U.S. strike in Iran) as well as a ballistic missile launch against Kuwait (which was intercepted by Kuwaiti forces).

However, U.S. treasury secretary Scott Bessent suggested prolonged delay of a deal also works in the U.S.’s favour as sanctions and the blockading of Iranian ports continue: “Their troops are not getting paid, the police are not reporting for work, and Kharg Island is shut down; the Iranian economy and currency are in free fall.”

Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, said while markets are “finding ways of muddling through for now,” the constantly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran regarding the state of negotiations makes getting a handle on ongoing price swings unsustainable.

Indeed, oil trading early Thursday saw the price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate rise 1.2 percent to $89.76, but only after bouncing between $87 and $92; by midway through the session, Brent rose 2.1 percent to $96.29 per barrel.

Ritterbusch and Associates warned that "This contrast in responses to ⁠bullish and bearish inputs could continue as long as the ceasefire remains intact."

Above and beyond the war itself, data on Thursday underscored the bearish sentiment that has dogged oil trading throughout 2026: Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, noted that U.S. households are less able to save money, with the personal savings rate down to a four-year low of 2.6 percent, “pointing up the financial pressure on lower- and middle-income families.”

Households also reported to be discouraged by the economy and high inflation, despite remarkable gains made by the stock market (the high yields of which, unfortunately, threatened to slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of other investments).