SeaIntel: 2017 Q4 to See "Massive Overcapacity" in the Container Industry

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Tuesday October 10, 2017

SeaIntel Maritime Analysis (SeaIntel) today said the container shipping market in 2017 Q4 is likely to see "massive overcapacity."

The consultancy notes that, while Q4 is typically a time for the "culling" of deployed capacity compared to the peak season that is Q3, this year does not appear to be following this tendency.

"2017-Q4 is currently slated for massive overcapacity, as the traditional seasonal culling of capacity has not (yet) been scheduled. If the past five years is used as a guide, 25 sailings will have to blanked on Asia-Europe, while Transpacific will require the blanking of 67 average-sized sailings," said SeaIntel.

The company goes on to explain that, over the 2012-2016 period, Q4 deployed capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade lane has, on average, contracted by -6.6 percent relative compared to Q3.

However, 2017 Q4 is currently expected to shrink by only -0.8 percent compared to the previous quarter.

"If the same seasonality is assumed, a total of 193,000 TEU would have to be blanked over the entire Q4 period, equal to the blanking of 13.5 average sailings, or roughly one sailing per week," added SeaIntel.

In May, a report issued by Moody's Japan K.K. (Moody's) suggested that, with signs of recovery in both the dry bulk and container shipping segments, the outlook for the global shipping industry was stable.

Ship & Bunker News Team
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