ANALYSIS: VLSFO Prices Forecast to Drop to Levels Not Seen Since Covid-19 Era

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Thursday July 24, 2025

Weakening oil demand is leading bunker prices in the direction of multi-year lows by the end of next year.

Ship & Bunker's latest global average bunker price forecast shows VLSFO averaging about $541/mt in Q3 2025 and at $547/mt across full-year 2025.

But the global average VLSFO price is now forecast to hold below $500/mt throughout 2026 and drop as low as $453/mt in the fourth quarter of next year, a level not seen since January 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the Q3 and FY2025 forecasts are up from about $512/mt and $529/mt, respectively, in the Q2 report published in April, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East holding prices higher in the near term.

The G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering ports averaged $538/mt in Q2. April's Ship & Bunker VLSFO forecast for Q2 was $517/mt, just 3.9% under the real price as it emerged.

Rising oil inventories around the world in the wake of slowing demand are pointing to a significant drop in prices over the course of next year. The US/Iran conflict in June temporarily raised prices, and the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price remains elevated for now, but this factor is likely to be outstripped by weakening demand next year.

To view the full set of 2025-2026 quarterly forecasts for VLSFO, HSFO and MGO at Singapore, Rotterdam, Fujairah and Houston, as well as on a global basis, click here.

Ship & Bunker News Team
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