Macquarie thinks the energy supply chain will be more flexible than ever before: File Image/Pixabay

Oil prices on Wednesday continued their downward spiral, reaching their lowest level since the start of the U.S./Iran war, and reflecting the ongoing optimism among traders that a peace agreement between the two countries will be achieved.

Brent fell 3.8 percent to settle at $73.87 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.9 percent to settle at $70.34 per barrel.

Optimism was also buoyed by Strait of Hormuz transit numbers: according to Kpler, total crossings through the strait came to 32 between June 12-14; one week later, from June 19—21, crossings rose to 93.

However, hawks who criticized U.S. president Donald Trump for suspending hostilities and attempting negotiations instead of finishing what he started noted that Oman and Iran said in a joint statement that they were looking at costs associated with administering transit through the strait - and theorized that this indicated permanent fees might be on the table.

As has been a common daily occurrence, Washington continued to insist it has won a variety of concessions via the peace negotiations, and Iran refutes them, case in point: Trump on Wednesday said concessions from Iran included accepting United Nations nuclear inspectors into the country; but the Islamic republic’s foreign ministry denied it had agreed to that. 

Still, the perception of peace being attainable caused oil analysts to radically reverse average price estimates for 2026: Macquarie lowered its estimate for WTI this year to $77 per barrel from $89 per barrel previously.

Macquarie strategist Peter Taylor explained in a research note, “Our biggest call…on the assumption of an unrestricted Hormuz, is that the oil market normalizes far quicker than consensus expects.

“The diversions and new trade routes established during the conflict will likely leave the supply chain even more flexible and diversified than before.”