Drewry: 2013 a Tough Year for Tanker Owners

The last quarter of 2012 saw the tanker fleet expand by 4.3 million dwt.

UK based shipping consultancy Drewry are predicting 2013 will be another tough year for tanker owners as the market continues to struggle under the pressure of overcapacity.

According to their latest Tanker Forecaster report, in 2013 tonnage demand in the tanker market is expected to increase by 2.6 percent (8.36 million dwt) to 330 million dwt, but 26.4 million dwt of fresh tonnage is due for delivery this year.

The last quarter of 2012 saw the tanker fleet expand by 4.3 million dwt to reach over 412 million dwt.

A persistent weakness in freight rates, in conjunction with high bunker prices, limited availability of credit, and very low earnings have discouraged owners from placing new orders despite falling prices, and Drewry noted that even the shipyards' offer of improved vessel designs with better fuel efficiency has failed to stimulate an orderbook which is now 12% of the existing fleet.

There was less than 13 million dwt of tanker tonnage ordered in 2012, and Drewry expects the tanker fleet to add about 75 million dwt through 2017, growing to 487 million dwt.

Growth in 2010 and 2011 was 36 million dwt and 14.9 million dwt respectively.

Drewry anticipates improvements in the global economy and a corresponding increase in oil demand, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America will result in a good recovery in tonnage demand from 2014 onwards.

Demand is forecast to rise steadily at about 5% a year through 2013-17 to roughly 405 million dwt, and tanker utilisation is thus expected to improve after 2013, which should translate into improved earnings for owners.

Last month shipping consultant and accounting firm Moore Stephens predicted 2013 would be a tough year for shipping in general.