Box Market Bunker Demand to Double by 2030

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Tuesday March 24, 2015

Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicts bunker demand in the container segment will nearly double between 2014 and 2030.

BCG delivered the comments as part of its analysis of the global shipping industry's bunkering options for the future, in particular as it responds to changing environmental rules.

In addition to a growth in demand for bunkers within the sector, the fuel mix is likely to change, said BCG.

According to BCG's "base case" calculations, which assume the implementation of the proposed International Maritime Organization (IMO) global sulfur cap by 2020, heavy fuel oil demand (HFO) will make up only half of demand by 2030.

"In 2030, market penetration of cleaned HFO will be close to 50 percent, while LNG will capture about one-third of the market," said BCG.

"Conventional fuel, mainly distillates, will capture 22 percent of the market in 2030."

As reliance on heavy fuel oil (HFO) falls, the bunkering industry will need to invest to ensure demand is met, said BCG.

"To meet the increased demand for distillates, refineries will need to invest more in hydrocrackers and coker units that convert fuel oil into distillates," said BCG.

"To supply LNG, ports will need to invest in onshore infrastructure."

In addition, it will be crucial for shipping lines to be clear about their best options for complying with new rules, said BCG.

If investments are "well designed and executed, companies can expect a net positive return."

Ship & Bunker News Team
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