Trump's Iran Stance Plus Ongoing Woes in Venezuela and Nigeria Weigh Heavily on Oil Market

The surprise election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president is still weighing heavily on analysts, who fear his belligerence will exacerbate world markets in the form of restricting business with Iran.

Anthony DiPaola, commentator for Bloomberg News, worried that Trump's first action upon taking office "would be ripping up the Iran deal."

While conceding that some U.S. senators don't believe he'll go that far, DiPaolo added that "there's a lot he can do that would potentially obstruct investment in Iran," including restricting U.S. dollar transactions and preventing American companies from doing business with the Islamic republic.

Another analyst concerned that an Iranian oil boom won't happen due to Trump is Robin Mills, founder of the Dubai-based Qamar Energy consultancy: "The risk is heightened for future projects," she said.

But not everyone associated with the energy industry is pessimistic about U.S. policy: Peyman Ghorbani, vice governor for economic affairs at Iran's central bank, told Bloomberg, "We expect to see more rationality on positions taken by Trump after he becomes president."

To which Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, added, "International oil companies are likely to adopt a wait-and-see position on Iran until it becomes clear what Trump does."

Still others think too much focus is being directed and Trump and not enough on other factors that pose a key risk to the oil market: John Baffes, a senior economist at the World Bank, told Reuters that one risk "is Venezuela, which supplies 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) out of 95 million bpd of global production.

"If the country faces deeper turmoil, there could be disruption to oil supplies."

As for what impact Trump will have on oil prices, Baffes remarked, "Our recent forecast had oil at $57 per barrel for 2017, and that assumed some impact from OPEC's decision to limit output; we don't see much change to this outlook based on recent developments."

Another major oil producer whose economic woes could seriously impact the global market is Nigeria: Ladi Bada, chief executive of Shoreline Natural Resources, disclosed on Thursday that his country needs at least $14 billion per year in new investment over the next five years to boost oil output to 2.2 million bpd – the production level on which the national budget is based.

Currently the country is investing $9 billion.

It's anyone's guess whether this massive injection of funds is feasible, especially considering militant groups such as the Niger Delta Avengers have  successfully disrupted operations and as of this week laid claim to blowing up three trunk lines carrying 300,000 barrels of oil a day to Shell's Bonny export terminal in southern Bayelsa state.

Iran's more recent attempts to fortify its post-sanctions international market presence took place in July, with an announcement it will soon name companies eligible to submit tenders to develop its oil and gas fields; and a report that it is broadening its export trade by supplying China's independent (teapot) refineries.