Groups Advocates Extending ECAs into the Arctic

Shipping emissions are predicted to rise between 150 and 600 percent. 

Emissions from Arctic shipping are estimated to grow between 150 percent and 600 percent by 2025, according to a report released by The International Council on Clean Transportation, who advocates extending Emission Control Area (ECA) rules into Arctic waters.

The forecasts were made on low to mid-range scenarios of increased Arctic activity in the coming years, though it doesn't account for potential oil and gas exploration.

In the low-growth scenario, one percent of annual traffic through the Panama and Suez canals would be diverted through the Bering Strait, while a mid-range scenario doubles the figure to two percent.

The report also estimated that in a low-growth model a switch to 0.10 percent sulfur fuel, the current standard for ECA, could reduce the expected emissions of sulfur oxides by 87 percent compared to the emissions levels of current 3.5 percent maximum sulfur fuels, while also reducing particulate matter by 35 percent and black carbon at least 5 percent.

A switch to 0.50 percent sulfur fuel was estimated to reduce sulfur emissions by 35 percent.

“Upholding the implementation date of 0.5% fuel sulfur, rather than delaying to 2025 or later, would provide benefits beginning in 2020 extending through the period of time when increases in vessel traffic are actively occurring,” said the report.

“Extending the North American ECAs into Arctic waters would provide additional air-quality and human health benefits associated with 0.1% sulfur fuel.”

Currently, regulations restricting sulfur content in marine fuel used in the Arctic is expected to come into effect in 2020 when the global sulfur cap of 0.50% is scheduled to come into force.

The report also quotes previous figures released by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which expects nitrogen oxide emissions to grow 300 percent and particulate matter by 280 percent by 2025.

Black carbon emissions are also expected to quintuple between 2004 and 2050.

Late last year, the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 67) approved the Polar Code, which also establishes environmental protections against pollution in Arctic and Antarctic waters.