The deal sets 30-day period for minesweeping operations. File Image / Pixabay

Container shipping may not fully return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz until mid-September despite the recent US-Iran preliminary deal to reopen the Strait, according to ocean and freight analytics firm Xeneta.

The deal should pave the way for the resumption of container shipping through the key waterway, but the disruption caused by the blockade has been so extensive that global supply chains will take months to recover, it said in an email statement on Friday.

"Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades," Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said.

Before the Iran war broke out in late February, 99 container services operating in or transiting the Arabian Gulf deployed a combined capacity of 3.2 million TEU, equivalent to around 10% of the global container fleet.

Xeneta added only 11 services remain active today, while hundreds of vessels have been diverted or displaced across global trade routes.

The disruption has pushed freight rates sharply higher. Since late February, spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast have risen 192%, while rates to North Europe have increased 106%.

Although the US-Iran agreement provides a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Xeneta noted that minesweeping operations are expected to take at least 30 days before normal shipping traffic can resume safely.

Sand said freight rates are likely to continue rising until the strait is fully reopened, with the market potentially peaking in the coming weeks before easing gradually.

Xeneta expects the recovery to unfold in phases, starting with the release of vessels stranded in the Arabian Gulf, followed by the return of regional feeder services and eventually the restoration of major Asia-Europe and Asia-North America container routes.

The company also expects carriers to redesign networks to improve resilience against future disruptions, potentially relying more heavily on feeder services and transshipment hubs rather than direct calls into the Gulf.

“Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharge increases in July and fears over available capacity, with many being told ships are full on trades out of Asia for weeks in advance, Sand said.

"Shippers who manage to get their boxes on board are paying a premium to do so."