Global VLSFO Prices Forecast to Hold in Low $400s/Mt for Next Two Years

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Monday February 2, 2026

Global bunker prices are set to drop into the low $440s/mt in the coming months and remain there for the next two years.

Ship & Bunker's latest global average bunker price forecast shows VLSFO averaging about $464/mt in Q1, before dropping to $441/mt in Q2 and remaining below $450/mt until at least the end of 2027.

The latest forecast sees a low of $417/mt being reached in Q1 2027 - a level not seen since December 2020 - with full-year averages of $440/mt this year and $425/mt next year.

The forecast is based on Ship & Bunker's G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering locations, which has averaged $474.50/mt so far this year.

The Q1 2026 price forecast is $51/mt higher than the previous one made in October 2025, reflecting a later onset of this year's price drops than had previously been expected. 

The expectation of falling prices is being driven by increased crude production from OPEC+ member states seeking to recapture market share, combined with weak demand growth at a time of global economic uncertainty. Instability in Venezuela and Iran, while raising prices somewhat at the start of the year, has yet to deliver price spikes of the magnitude that might have been expected in the past from alarming headlines from two of the world's key oil producers.

To view the full set of 2025-2026 quarterly forecasts for VLSFO, HSFO and MGO at Singapore, Rotterdam, Fujairah and Houston, as well as on a global basis, click here.

Ship & Bunker News Team
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