• EIA trims 2026 full-year Brent forecast to $95/bbl, down from $96/bbl last month
• Strait of Hormuz assumed closed through late May; full recovery to pre-conflict levels not expected until late 2026 or early 2027
• G20-VLSFO forecast revised down to $880/mt in Q2, from $913/mt in last month's outlook
• Current G20-VLSFO price stands at $913.50/mt; Singapore $829.50/mt, Rotterdam $794/mt, Houston $859/mt

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), trimming its 2026 Brent crude forecast marginally while extending its assumed timeline for disruption at the Strait of Hormuz.

EIA now forecasts Brent to average $109.73/bbl in Q2 2026, $99.09/bbl in Q3, and $89.00/bbl in Q4 as oil flows through the strait gradually recover.

For the full year, EIA sees Brent averaging $94.85/bbl in 2026, down from $96.00/bbl in its April STEO, and $79.39/bbl in 2027, up from the previous forecast of $76.09/bbl.

The agency now assumes the strait will remain effectively closed through late May, with traffic beginning to resume in June — a slightly later reopening than assumed last month.

EIA cautioned that if the reopening were delayed by a further month, crude prices could run more than $20/bbl above current forecasts in the near term.

The April Brent spot price averaged $117/bbl — the highest monthly average since June 2022 — with daily prices reaching as high as $138/bbl on April 7.

Brent implied volatility has averaged 78% since the conflict began in late February, the highest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.

Bunker Price Implications

Based on EIA's updated crude outlook, Ship & Bunker now forecasts VLSFO prices at primary bunkering ports, as tracked by the G20-VLSFO Index, to average $880/mt in Q2 2026, $794/mt in Q3, and $713/mt in Q4.

For the full year, the revised EIA forecast implies a G20-VLSFO average of $760/mt in 2026 and $636/mt in 2027.

This compares to a Q2 forecast of $913/mt published following last month's STEO.

The G20-HSFO Index is forecast to average $752/mt in Q2 and $650/mt for full year 2026, while the G20-MGO Index is forecast at $1,330/mt in Q2 and $1,150/mt for the full year.

Current G20-VLSFO prices stand at $913.50/mt, with VLSFO price levels for key hubs at $829.50/mt in Singapore, $794/mt in Rotterdam, and $859/mt in Houston.

In Singapore, Ship & Bunker forecasts VLSFO to average $829/mt in Q2 and $717/mt for full year 2026. At Rotterdam, the Q2 VLSFO forecast is $766/mt and $662/mt for the full year. At Houston, Q2 VLSFO is forecast at $797/mt and $689/mt for the full year.

Ship & Bunker publishes bunker price forecasts for every port and index it covers, based on the Brent forecasts from the monthly EIA STEO.

It should be noted that the forecasts are based on the average price relationship between each fuel and Brent over the previous 12 months. The highly abnormal price conditions seen in recent weeks mean any rapid change in the Middle East situation will heavily affect their accuracy.

EIA said its outlook remains highly sensitive to assumptions around the duration of the conflict and the extent of associated disruptions to oil supply.