Will We Yet See a Bunker Supply Squeeze From Hormuz and Middle East Disruption? File Image. AI Generated.

• Spring fears of a bunker supply squeeze have not materialised, with Singapore sales at a record pace
• APPEC delegates said last week sourcing bunkers is no longer a problem
• IMO now counts 80 attacks around Hormuz, with attacks resuming in the Red Sea
• Should buyers and suppliers be worried now, worried later, or has the supply chain done enough to show it can take the strain? Have your say in our poll on LinkedIn here

When the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed in the opening weeks of the Middle East conflict, the worry across the bunker market was a supply squeeze, with Asian suppliers urging buyers to book early and Fujairah running short of cargoes into the summer.

Prices have certainly moved: the G20-VLSFO Index stood at $888.50/mt on Tuesday, 63.5% above its February 27 pre-war level of $543.50/mt, according to Ship & Bunker data, though well down from the March 20 peak of $1,053/mt.

But the squeeze itself has not shown up in the volumes. Singapore sold 37.77 million mt of bunkers in the first eight months of 2026, the highest January to August total the port has recorded.

The mood at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore last week was much the same, with delegates saying the market has adjusted to prolonged disruption.

"We do not see any problems with sourcing bunkers today and putting them on board," said Emarat Maritime managing director Rishi Nyati on one panel.

Against that, the conflict shows no sign of an off-ramp and is spreading: the IMO said on Wednesday it has now verified 80 attacks on shipping in and around Hormuz since February 28, with at least 22 seafarers killed, and attacks in the Red Sea have resumed.

Drone strikes launched from Iraq on September 10 and 11 then hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the 1,200 km line to Yanbu on the Red Sea that has been carrying some 4 to 5 million b/d of crude around the closed strait, and the kingdom shut it as a precaution, sending Brent back above $100/bbl.

So should buyers and suppliers be worried now, worried later, or has the supply chain done enough to show it can take the strain?

Have your say in the Ship & Bunker poll on LinkedIn here.