Shipping Confidence Holds Steady Following Three Successive Quarterly Increases: Moore Stephens

Moore Stephens UK (Moore Stephens) says the average shipping confidence level in February 2017 held steady from November 2016 at 5.6 out of 10.0.

As Ship & Bunker reported in December, the average shipping confidence level of 5.6 reported in November was noted to be the highest rating since August 2015.

"After three successive quarterly increases, shipping confidence has held steady," said Moore Stephens of its most recent report, adding: "this is encouraging given the continuing political uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe.

"Shipping is vulnerable to changes in the political landscape, and a slew of elections in leading industrialised nations will render it particularly so this year."

Respondents to the Moore Stephens survey are noted to have generally felt that competition in the industry was running at very high levels, and expressed concerns over excess tonnage supply and geopolitical uncertainty, viewing 2017 as a year of contraction rather than improvement.

Owners were the only main respondent category to demonstrate an improved confidence level during the report period, with an average confidence level growing to 5.6 in February from 5.4 in November.

Charterer confidence declined from an all-time survey high of 6.8 to 5.9, manager confidence also declined, falling from 6.4 to 6.0, while the broking sector confidence slipped from 5.6 to 4.6.

Confidence in Europe and North America is shown to have increased from the previous survey period, growing from 5.4 to 5.5 and 5.9 to 6.1, respectively.

Meanwhile, shipping confidence is Asia slid from 5.7 in November 2016 to 5.6 in February 2017.

"Those with meaningful experience of the industry will be looking with some justification for a re-strengthening of rates in the tanker and dry-bulk trades, supported by continued rationalisation of newbuilding plans and accelerated recycling levels," concluded Moore Stephens.

"Meanwhile, oil prices will continue to go up, which is mixed news for the shipping industry. For those who can effectively manage risk and volatility, shipping is still the place to be."