UCL research finds investments in the fuels may offer limited support for a future transition to zero-emission ammonia in shipping. File Image / Pixabay

Investments in LNG and methanol-fuelled ships may not provide a clear pathway to zero-emission fuels in shipping, according to a new academic study.

Researchers at UCL Energy Institute examined whether the fuels can act as “stepping stones” towards green ammonia, widely seen as a potential zero-carbon marine fuel, according to a new research shared by UCL on Thursday.

The research assessed whether current investments in LNG and methanol help build the infrastructure, skills and regulatory systems needed for a later shift to ammonia.

The study found that methanol offers limited overlap with ammonia in terms of infrastructure.

Tanks, containment systems and bunkering lines designed for methanol have little physical compatibility with ammonia systems, meaning investments made today are unlikely to support a later transition.

While dual-fuel engines can technically be modified to run on different fuels, much of the wider vessel system would still require significant changes.

As a result, retrofitting ships from methanol to ammonia could involve costs similar to converting a conventional ship.

Several vessels have been ordered or delivered with methanol-ready or ammonia-ready notations, but so far, no ships have been converted to run on these fuels.

The report says LNG shows somewhat stronger potential as a transitional option because both LNG and ammonia require cryogenic storage and similar fuel-handling systems.

However, the researchers say this only works if ships and related infrastructure are genuinely designed to be 'ammonia ready.'

Without such preparation, the study warns that investments in LNG and methanol risk locking the industry into existing fuel pathways and diverting capital away from the development of ammonia-based shipping.

“There is a real danger in confusing short-term movement with long- term progress, Dr Pinar Langer, Research Fellow at the UCL Energy Institute Shipping and Oceans, said.

"Our findings based on interviews, documentary analysis, including patent data and econometric analysis, show that investments in LNG and methanol can easily become dead ends if they lock capital, infrastructure and expectations into pathways that do not lead to zero-emission shipping.”

The full report can be downloaded from here.