Oil Jumps As Trump Urges Iran Protesters To Take Over Their Country

Meanwhile, Canada's oil fortunes decline as the U.S. revamps Venezuela industry: File Image/Pixabay

Iran's chaos was again oil's gain on Tuesday, as U.S. president Donald Trump postponing diplomatic talks with the Islamic republic and urging protesters to overcome the clerical ruling regime seemed to lend credence to the fear that supply disruptions would result.

After reports came in that a crackdown against nation-wide protests in Iran had killed about 2,000 people and led to the arrests of thousands more, thus kindling Trump's ire, Brent settled up $1.60, or 2.5 percent, at $65.47.

West Texas Intermediate settled up $1.65, or 2.8 percent, at $61.15 per barrel.

Regarding Trump's imposition of a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, Bob Yawger, analyst at Mizuho Securities, said, "I don't think China, for example, is going to shy away from Iranian barrels but if it did, and if everybody did, that would reduce global ⁠supplies by 3.3 million barrels per day that are currently supplied to the market by Iran."

Barclays analysts added, "Unrest in Iran has added about $3-$4 ⁠per barrel in geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, in our view."

Bloomberg noted that traders were demanding the biggest premiums for bullish contracts since Israel and the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran nuclear sites last year: "A record volume of bullish Brent call options changed hands on Monday, in part led by large wagers on higher prices."

As for oil news elsewhere in the world, CIBC analysts estimated that the differential between the heavy Alberta blend known as Western Canada Select and West Texas Intermediate will average $14.25 per barrel this year, due to Washington rebuilding Venezuela's oil industry in the wake of the ouster of president Nicolas Maduro.

They wrote, "In the near term, we expect news around resuming investment in Venezuela and targeting production restarts will dominate headlines and cause pressure on WCS-WTI basis as well as heavy oil realizations for Western Canadian producers."

But Mike Shaw, portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton's ClearBridge Investments, said there's little risk of Canada being pushed out of the U.S. market in a meaningful way.