Conflicting data still suggests Iran's diminishing influence over the Hormuz: File Image/Pixabay.

No sooner did the oil market embrace news that Iran’s so-called blockage of the Strait of Hormuz was losing credibility as an increasing number of vessels were transiting the waterway than analysts on Wednesday cited Gulf export disruptions as a reason for raising oil forecasts.

Amid their predictions, oil trading for Wednesday held steady, with Brent trading near $96 per barrel after dropping 1.7 percent in the previous session, and West Texas Intermediate hovering around $90.

Ironically given the mindset of the forecasters, the trading was said to be spurred by JPMorgan disclosing in a note that crude exports from the Middle East had rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or 98 percent of pre-war levels.

In addition, Saudi Arabia restored flows through its East-West pipeline to at least 3.5 million bpd, about half its capacity, according to people familiar with the matter.

Still, a September survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast that Brentwould average $89.05 per barrel in 2026 and WTI $83.90 per barrel.

Suvro ⁠Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, said, "We are not betting on a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months…Significant upside risks to our forecasts exist if conflict continues to escalate instead of dialling down.”

Under HSBC’s base-case scenario, only gradual transit improvements would occur in a "structurally impaired" Hormuz, remaining far below what it claimed was the roughly 19-20 million bpd that passed through the strait before the conflict.

Conflicting with HSBC’s outlook (and in addition to JPMorgan’s findings), Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports," have recovered to 23.3 million bpd over the last week – a doubling of export rates in September overall.

Goldman analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby stated, “We estimate that the global oil market is roughly balanced in September.”

Most analysts expected the market to move back into surplus during 2027, with Gulf production gradually recovering and supply other than that from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continuing to expand.

If the robust figures offered by bullish analysts are true, this leaves Iran with a vastly diminished bargaining capacity as ceasefire negotiations with Washington continue; it also lends credence to U.S. president Donald Trump’s latest remark to media about the Hormuz: “I would say [we have] total control…everyone said, 'Well, they'll drop a mine in there and disrupt things a little bit,' but we have virtually total control of the strait.”

Despite the confusion, crude is still headed for a third monthly gain – with Brent up almost 70 percent for the year - on U.S.-Iran tensions and potential diesel export curbs from Washington.