US Trade Deals and Talks Fail to Lift Container Ocean Freight: Xeneta

Freight rates continue to fall as the EU-US trade deal and China talks fail to lift demand in an oversupplied container shipping market. Image Credit: Xeneta

The EU-US trade deal and China talks have done little to lift container shipping, with freight rates still falling on weak demand and oversupply, according to ocean freight analytics firm Xeneta.

"US trade deals are not a magic bullet, and we should not expect them to breathe new life into the subdued ocean shipping market," Emily Stausbøll, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta, said.

Xeneta data shows average container spot rates from China to the US West Coast have fallen 59% since June 1 to $2,268 per FEU, while US East Coast rates are down 43% to $3,796.

Rates from North Europe to the US East Coast have slipped 5% since June and 25% since January, now averaging $2,000 per FEU.

While the EU-US deal avoided steeper tariffs with a flat 15% rate on most EU goods, analysts warn that ongoing weak demand and overcapacity are still driving rate declines.

"A 15% tariff on imports from the EU is not good news for shippers – it is just news that isn't as bad as it could have been," Stausbøll said.

"We can also be sure US-China negotiations in Stockholm will not bring import costs back to where they were before Trump introduced the sweeping reciprocal tariffs in April.

"Against a backdrop of subdued demand, spot rates on US trades have plummeted and are likely to fall further, although carriers have managed to slow the decline in recent weeks by removing capacity."

Carriers have begun withdrawing capacity to slow the drop, but with frontloading now past and market fundamentals still poor, freight rates could fall further in the coming weeks.

"Carriers have reported massive profits in recent years in the wake of supply chain turmoil, but unless they can halt the dramatic decline in freight rates, those days may be over," Stausbøll concluded.