Meanwhile, Russia profits big-time from $100-plus crude: File Image/Pixabay

For once since the outbreak of the U.S./Iran war, traders on Friday displayed a nascent level of consistency in maintaining the sentiment, established in the previous session, that hostilities between the two countries – and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz – would continue for longer than anticipated, thus preserving the upward trajectory of two key benchmarks.

Brent rose 4.2 percent to settle above $112 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled above $99.

Efforts to reach a ceasefire continued, while the U.S. and Israel bombed nuclear and steel facilities in Iran, and Iran retaliated across the Persian Gulf.

Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, remarked, “No one is going home short while there are no clear signs of de-escalation.”

Macquarie Group Ltd. estimated a 60 percent probability of the war wrapping up by end of March, but admitted that if a 40 percent chance came true of lasting through June, oil could reach $200 per barrel.

A poll of 13 analysts by Reuters also saw oil rising to $200, if Iranian export facilities were damaged.

Another type of calculation was provided by the International Energy Agency: it estimated that the war had shrunk global oil supplies by around 11 million barrels per day (bpd) as of March 23.

To demonstrate how media is sending mixed signals about the war – as well as showing how impossible it is to get a firm grip on what’s really going on with its effects, Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, said, "You could put on two different hats about crude today: 'Why is it so high? Because this war is going to be over soon.'

"The other would be, 'Why is it so low, when 20 percent of global oil supply is bottlenecked behind the Strait of Hormuz?'"

In related oil news on Friday, the war is proving to be good news for Russia, whose oil revenues this month hit a four month high as prices jumped to $100 per barrel; media reported that so much additional revenues from the price spike is expected that authorities are unlikely to downgrade Russia’s economic prospects and hold off on planned budget cuts, plus they may even boost military spending on their war against Ukraine.