MARKET SURVEY: Major Hubs See Average 3.9% Y-o-Y Q2 Gain Despite Tariffs

Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

    •  3.9% average advance in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024
    •  Q2 volumes see 2.6% rise from Q14 2024
    •  US tariff policy hitting US ports hardest so far
    •  Read the full report here: shipandbunker.com/bi/bunker-volumes

Demand at key marine fuel hubs advanced on a yearly basis in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest market survey of bunker sales volumes in 17 leading global locations.

As in previous quarters, Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy surveyed bunker market participants around the world alongside official data where available and found an average rise of 3.9% in volumes in the second quarter from the same period of 2024. The year-on-year advance compares with a 3.1% year-on-year decline in Q1. Q2 volumes sequentially were 2.6% higher than in Q1.

For the first half as a whole, sales were up by 0.3% versus the same period a year earlier. Following the same trend over the remainder of the year would leave 2025 with the highest global sales since 2019.

The survey covers about 61.6% of the global demand total of 233.1 million mt for 2023 shown by official IMO data.

While in Q1 the top three hubs - Singapore, ARA and Fujairah - all saw declines, marking the first time this has happened in at least five years, Q2 saw a recovery for Singapore and ARA.

But the general mood in the market is far from positive. The volatile US tariff policy under the Trump Administration stepped up in intensity in early April, and this is likely to lead to lower global trade overall - and lower bunker demand - when data for all of 2025 is in.

Some of the gains seen at Asian ports in Q2 may have been down to shipping companies rushing to deliver cargoes before higher tariffs came into effect.

Thus far, the biggest downside of the tense global trade situation has been seen in the US.

"The North American bunker market showed significant drops in demand in Q2," 2050 Marine Energy's Adrian Tolson told Ship & Bunker. 

"This was seemingly entirely driven by the fear of tariffs and tariffs themselves.

"Containerized shipping cargo activity from Asia dropped during this same period, and this is painfully  reflected in bunker demand in the US major ports.

"While this might recover somewhat in coming quarters, it might also be that we are seeing a permanent loss of bunker demand.

"May 1st saw the commencement of the Med ECA and this is likely the cause of demand losses in Gibraltar and Turkey – it remains to be seen whether the Med ECA causes a permanent loss in demand or whether this is just temporary."

Worsening Market Sentiment

While volumes were up overall in Q2, general sentiment in the bunker market points to a weakening global outlook.

Tariffs and their knock-on dampening effect on global trade are the biggest cause for gloom, but these are combining with a general sense of a weakening global economy and the long-term secular decline in conventional bunker sales to deliver a clear picture of lower demand ahead.

"The volumes we observed in Asia during Q2 2025 remained stagnant, with limited new inquiries in the market," Martin Rasmussen, managing partner of Hanseatic Bunker Services, told Ship & Bunker.

"Thanks to our Africa desk and our strong network and presence in Africa, however, we were able to compensate part of this business through opportunities in the region."

Global supplier and trading firm Monjasa saw its diversified footprint helping it to manage the turbulent market, Americas managing director Rasmus Jacobsen told Ship & Bunker.

"Monjasa's role is to match supply and demand across physical and back-to-back trading markets," he said.

"While physical suppliers are usually quick to adapt to an increasing demand, they are certainly much slower to adapt to a decreasing demand, which can put margins under pressure.

"Diversification shows to be key. Having multiple physical supply areas and remaining fully engaged in back-to-back trading.

"In the Americas, we are yet to see how the imposed tariffs will affect total market demand.

"The Panama Canal saw solid increases in number of transits during Q2, however a slow-down is expected due to the uncertain tariffs landscape."

World Kinect, one of the world's largest bunker suppliers, saw its first quarterly loss from marine fuels since the end of 2017 in Q2, and saw delivered volumes sink by 7.1% on the year to 3.87 million mt.

The firm expects further weakness in marine fuel profitability in Q3, it said in August.

"The [Q2 bunker] volume decline was primarily related to ongoing global trade-related uncertainty," CFO Ira Birns said, citing in addition 'weaker performance at certain marine physical inventory locations in the US'.

Meanwhile KPI OceanConnect CEO Dorthe Bendtsen cited a 'market in flux' in an interview with Ship & Bunker in July, following an earnings release that showed a decline in profits.

"This was driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty," Bendtsen said.

"These external pressures have affected the entire sector, but we've remained focused on long-term value creation.

"Despite the margin pressure, we remain optimistic."

Shipergy CEO Daniel Rose was more gloomy in an assessment of the market published in August.

"People are starting to crack," he said in a social media post.

"I sense surrender from some.

"And from others, I hear stories of people pushing the boundaries of acceptable risk in credit and compliance, just to cover their costs.

"Compared to 2020 or even 2022/23, these are bleak times indeed."

Future Outlook

There are causes for both optimism and pessimism in the latest volumes numbers, 2050 Marine Energy's Tolson told Ship & Bunker.

"My feeling is that some this demand erosion will be permanent," he said.

"Outside these areas global demand appeared to be robust – perhaps we are already seen a shift in cargo activity and bunker demand generated by the new tariff regime?"

Methodology

As with the previous surveys the areas covered by the survey are Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, Fujairah, the US Gulf, South Korea, Russia, the Gibraltar Strait, Hong Kong, Panama, Zhoushan, Japan, New York, West Africa, South Africa, the Canary Islands, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Turkey. Data is sourced from a combination of market participants and official records.

The full breakdown of the survey results, including sales volumes in each bunkering region for Q2 2025 and 2024, is available by clicking here.