OPEC November Output Rises, but Further Increases Not a Certainty, says Analyst

OPEC's November output of 31.17 million barrels per day was a 90,000 bpd increase over October, say Platts.

Despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) failing to agree an output ceiling at its Dec 4 Vienna meeting, along with news that the cartel's November output was 31.17 million barrels per day (bpd) - a 90,000 bpd increase over October - Platts in its November survey says further substantial production increases are not a certainty.

Margaret McQuaile, senior correspondent for Platts, said this week, "OPEC's failure to agree a ceiling at its recent meeting doesn't necessarily mean a big increase in output is on the cards.

"The previous ceiling had no individual country quotas and therefore could not be enforced. So, in practical terms, policy remains unchanged."

The Platts survey states that higher volumes for Iraq drove the November surge, and those volumes combined with record exports from the south were "made possible by substantial withdrawals from stocks that had built up the previous month because of lower exports."

Iraq reportedly exported 4.5 million barrels on a single day in November; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia claimed total production capacity of 12.5 million bpd and reportedly pumped a record 10.564 million bpd at the wellhead in June.

McQuaile's remarks notwithstanding, Platts notes that it will include production figures from Kurdistan in its December estimate of Iraq, whose anticipated production increase over the next year or so could be as much as 200,000 bpd.

Platts will also include an estimate for Indonesian output in its next survey as that country reactivates its membership with OPEC; preliminary data shows that the country's exports of crude in November averaged 373,830 bpd and its imports averaged 369,310 bpd.

Meanwhile, OPEC reported that its daily basket price on December 16 stood at $32.33/bbl compared to $32.61/bbl the day prior.

WTI Thursday closed under $36/bbl, while Brent was only a few cents over $37/bbl.

In maintaining its production output, OPEC expects its share of the market will rise to 37 percent from its current 33 percent by 2040 as non-OPEC supply gradually diminishes.