US Shale Oil Production to Double in 20 years: BP

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Monday February 15, 2016

U.S. shale producers may be suffering under the high output strategy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, but long-term prosperity will come in the form of a doubling of production, according to energy major BP.

BP's latest 2035 Energy Outlook says global demand for energy will increase by 34 percent due to population and economic growth, and U.S. production will increase from the current 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 8 million bpd in the 2030s. 

Spencer Dale, chief economist for BP, says, "We see U.S. tight oil falling over the coming years but thereafter tight oil picks up." 

He added that global oil demand will continue to grow "strongly" this year, albeit at a slower pace than last year's growth of 1.8 million bpd.

The report credits technological innovation and productivity gains for unlocking "vast resources of tight oil and shale gas, causing us to revise the outlook for U.S. production successively higher."

Fossil fuels will account for 80 percent of energy supplies in 2035, with gas the fastest-growing fossil fuel at a 1.8 percent per year rise compared to oil's 0.9 percent.

The British energy giant's optimism about U.S. production matches that of a new Bloomberg analysis, which said many shale patches in Texas remain profitable with crude prices below $30 per barrel, and that wells in other locales can be profitable even if crude drops to $22.52 per barrel, which is $4 below 2016's lowest level to date.

Ship & Bunker News Team
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