U.S. Could End Net Oil Imports by 2035

Many factors will affect the level of domestic oil production in the U.S.

The U.S. could bring its net oil imports down to zero by 2035 if it reduced consumption while increasing production at a relatively quick rate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said.

The projection comes from the most dramatic scenario in a new EIA analysis, in which technical improvements for recovering tight oil resources, new oil discoveries, and reduced oil consumption make the U.S. a net exporter of oil in the mid-2030s.

Another scenario, which includes the same assumptions about oil production without the changes in demand, predicts a decline in net imports to 7 percent in 2040, while a reference case puts net imports at 37 percent that year.

The EIA's "high net imports case," which assumes the least production and most consumption of the scenarios considered, calls for net import dependence of 44 percent in 2040.

U.S. net import dependence reached 60 percent in 2005 but has since declined to 41 percent in 2012.

The EIA said the wide variation in the different scenarios reflects many uncertainties regarding the amount of oil available in the country and the technology available for extraction.

While the analysis focuses on domestic factors affecting the oil market, the agency also notes that choices made by oil-exporting countries could change prices and quantities available, resulting in even more variation in possible outcomes.

A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in November predicted that the U.S. would be the world's biggest oil producer by 2020 and that North America would become a net oil exporter around 2030.