IMO 2020: Shell Sees Significant Lube Oil Shift

Joris Van Brussel, General Manger, Shell Marine. Image Credit: Shell Marine.

With the global sulfur cap on marine fuel falling to 0.50% from January 1, 2020, Shell Marine expects a significant shift for cylinder lubricants to happen along side the change.

"Recent months have seen some movement by mainstream shipowners towards exhaust gas scrubbing to meet the 2020 marine fuel sulphur cap. These customers will continue using high sulphur heavy fuel oils with two stroke engines, and demand lubes that are proven to protect cylinders against cold corrosion under extreme stress, such as Shell Alexia S6 [with a BN of 100] or the higher BN Shell Alexia 140," says General Manger, Joris Van Brussel.

"However, with just over a year to go before the new restrictions enter into force, a significant part of the market will shift to fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, where other cylinder oil formulations with a lower BN number is expected to deliver optimum performance."

With its two-stroke product portfolio for 2020 "largely in place," Van Brussel expects that there will be a requirement "for significant volumes of higher BN cylinder oils to be replaced by BN40 or BN70 grades."

Indeed, despite scrubbers seeing a significant uptick in interest in recent months, Clarkson Research last week said it expects up to 90% of the world's fleet will be burning compliant fuel come 2020.

But Shell also notes the industry must deal with an ever-changing picture.

"Engine makers still developing technology aggressively, and the fuels market mix evolving, sulphur emission-free LNG is also securing a position as a marine fuel requiring widespread distribution," says Van Brussel.