IEA Sees Hydrogen and Ammonia Taking up 63% of Bunker Demand by 2050

The IEA envisages a dramatic fall in the use of oil in bunker fuel over the next three decades. Image Credit: IEA

Hydrogen and ammonia together could together take up 63% of global bunker demand by 2050 if the world sticks to a net-zero emissions target for that year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The Paris-based agency has released what it calls a roadmap for how to reach global net-zero emissions by 2050. The roadmap does not include the shipping industry itself reaching net-zero emissions by that date, envisaging instead a reduction from 883 million mt of CO2 emissions in 2019 to 122 million mt in 2050.

The biggest dose of that reduction occurs in the 2030s, with shipping's carbon footprint dropping from 705 million mt in 2030 to 348 million mt in 2040.

The report envisages ammonia, hydrogen and bioenergy demand rising from 0% of the marine energy market in 2020 to 8%, 2% and 7% respectively by 2030, and 46%, 17% and 21% respectively by 2050. Fossil oil takes up just over 15% of marine demand by 2050 in the IEA's scenario, while fossil gas's share is consistently less than 5% over the next three decades and negligible by 2050.

This is based on the assumption of marine energy demand slipping from 11 exajoules/year in 2020 to 10 EJ/year in 2050, while freight demand climbs from 109,154 billion tonne-kilometres in 2020 to 291,032 billion tonne-kilometres in 2050.

"Governments need to define their strategies for low‐carbon fuels in shipping and aviation by 2025 at the latest, given the slow turnover rate of the fleets, after which they should rapidly implement  them," the IEA said in the report.

"International  co‐operation  and  collaboration  will  be  crucial  to  success.

"Priority action should target the most heavily used ports and airports so as to maximise the impact of initial investment.

"Harbours near industrial areas are ideally placed to become low‐carbon fuel hubs."