2050 Net Zero Target for Shipping May Be More Achievable Than 50% GHG Cut

Lamerton (right) was speaking at the IBIA conference in Genoa on Thursday. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

Bunker industry veteran Neil Lamerton has expressed the paradoxical view that a net zero GHG emissions target for shipping in 2050 may be more achievable than the present plan for a 50% cut.

The IMO is set to revise its GHG strategy at a meeting of its Marine Environment Protection Committee in London later this year. The current strategy envisages a cut of 50% in shipping's total GHG emissions from 2008's level by 2050, but several member states are lobbying to strengthen the target considerably, possibly all the way to a 100% cut.

"It's probably slightly controversial, but my personal feeling is, if we have a target of 50%, we probably will miss it," Lamerton said at the IBIA Mediterranean Energy and Shipping Conference in Genoa on Thursday.

"If we have a target of 100%, we will probably make it."

Lamerton has had a wide-ranging career in the bunker industry including stints at KPI Bridge Oil, GP Global and LQM, and currently serves as UK market specialist for Alpha Trading. But he gave the conference his take on the feasibility of the IMO's targets in a personal capacity, rather than giving his employer's view.

A net-zero target could me more feasible because of its inherent guarantee that conventional bunker fuels will no longer be playing a role in the marine energy mix, he argued.

"At the moment, if it's 50-50 ... I'm not going to go for it; I don't have to, because you've got that 50% where you can not do it," Lamerton said.

"If I'm on the supply side and I've got to invest a lot of money, because this 50% isn't going to take my fuel, I'm not going to invest in it.

"If I know by 2050 there can be no fossil fuels left, there is a deadline there where, if I make the investment over the next 20-30 years, I know that from 2050 onwards I'm going to get the returns.

"If I go to the bank and say, I need $20 billion to be able to do this, they could say, 'But if the 50% don't come to your port, you've wasted my money.'"