MEPC 84 is scheduled from April 27 to May 1. File Image / Pixabay

A new study by the UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group and energy non-profit RMI finds GHG pricing will be critical to achieving a cost-effective energy transition in shipping, as IMO policymakers prepare for MEPC 84.

The analysis suggests carbon pricing within the IMO Net-Zero framework would improve fuel market stability, boost the availability of compliant fuels, and support a just transition, UCL said in an emailed report on Thursday.

Using a newly developed fleet evolution model, which factors in real-world shipowner behaviour such as risk aversion and peer influence, the study highlights that policy structure directly impacts investment decisions.

It finds that frameworks combining carbon pricing, a capped compliance market, and incentives for zero- and near-zero fuels are most effective in unlocking capital.

“This research fills a critical gap in the evidence base, Dr Marie Fricaudet, Senior Research Fellow at UCL, said.

"By modelling how mass market shipowners actually make decisions — cautiously, with limited foresight, and with one eye on their competitors — we get a fundamentally different picture of what different policy architectures and GHG pricing will deliver."

The analysis also warns that regional measures alone, such as EU regulation, are insufficient to drive global fleet transition, while technical-only approaches risk higher costs and weaker investment signals.

According to the study, early adopter support and stable carbon pricing mechanisms will be key to avoiding supply bottlenecks and enabling scalable uptake of alternative fuels, particularly as demand accelerates after an initial slow adoption phase.

The 84th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84), scheduled to take place from April 27 to May 1.