MSI Predicts 80% Spike in Bunker Costs Under IMO's Midterm Plans

Will Fray, Director of MSI. Image Credit: MSI

New analysis by consultancy firm Maritime Strategies International (MSI) suggests the IMO's recently agreed measures could raise bunker costs by 82% by 2035, potentially adding $100 billion annually in penalties for conventionally-fuelled ships

Using its newly launched SEASCAPE analytics platform, MSI projected fuel consumption for over 30,000 conventionally fuelled ships from 2024 through to 2035, applying forecast bunker prices alongside anticipated penalties under the IMO's Net Zero Framework.

"This provides some indication of the scale: by this approach, the IMO's penalties would be equivalent to an 82% premium on top of the fleet bunker costs by 2035 – almost $100 Bn for the ships included," MSI said in an emailed statement on Wednesday.

MSI noted that the same figures indicate a major opportunity for lower-carbon alternatives in the bunker market.

"This also highlights the opportunity for the shipping bunker market – an annual pot directed towards drop-in biofuels and low carbon alternatives that could rise to $100 Bn per year within the next decade."

SEASCAPE supports this analysis by providing detailed insights into vessel performance, emissions, and market value.

The platform uses machine learning to estimate vessel behaviour in areas where AIS signals are unavailable, covering more than two million 'dark periods' each month—times when signals are missing, such as in remote regions with limited coverage.

"MSI has invested two years in SEASCAPE's development, driven by demand from customers for improved modelling of fleet behaviour at a time when fleet inefficiencies and diversions are impacting earnings and values far in excess of historical norms," Will Fray, Director of MSI, said.

MSI forecasts that conventional-fueled vessels will incur nearly $100 billion in additional costs by 2035 due to IMO penalties.

MSI Seascape