Oil-based fuels may hang on to their position in the bunker market for longer than expected. File Image / Pixabay
Classification society the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) expects oil-based bunker fuels to retain a share of as much as 40% of the bunker market by 2050, it said in new research published this week.
On Thursday the organisation published a report titled "Setting the Course to Low Carbon Shipping" setting out its analysis of the decarbonisation agenda for shipping.
"Petroleum-based fuels are expected to have a considerable market share by 2050 (up to 40%), which makes the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems relevant not only for shore applications, but potentially on board marine vessels," ABS said in the report.
But the organisation warned that a share this high of oil in the marine energy pool at that point could jeopardize the IMO 2050 target of halving the shipping industry's total greenhouse gas emissions by that year.
"Based on the projected fuel mix for the five vessel segments analyzed in this study, shipping can meet the IMO's target to reduce CO2 emissions per transport work (gCO2 /dwt/nm) by 70 percent by 2050, relative to 2008," ABS said.
"However, to achieve a 50 percent reduction in absolute CO2 emissions (ton), the market share of petroleum fuels will need to be further reduced by 2050 (below 40 percent)."